Margarine - Kenya | Statista Market Forecast

Revenue in the Margarine market amounts to US$212.50m in 2024. The market is expected to grow annually by 8.83% (CAGR 2024-2029).
In global comparison, most revenue is generated China (US$5bn in 2024).
In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$3.78 are generated in 2024.
In the Margarine market, volume is expected to amount to 51.98m kg by 2029. The Margarine market is expected to show a volume growth of 5.0% in 2025.0.
The average volume per person in the Margarine market is expected to amount to 0.79kg in 2024.

Definition:

Margarine is a butter substitute made from vegetable oils and contains a minimum of 80% fat. Margarine is typically less expensive and has less saturated fat than butter.

Additional Information:

The market comprises revenue and average revenue per capita, volume and average volume per capita, price per unit (unit refers to kilogram), sales channels. The market encompasses retail sales through both online and offline sales channels to private end customers (B2C). The market only covers at-home consumption; out-of-home consumption is not included.

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Regular margarine
Light or reduced-fat margarine
Soft margarine
Non-hydrogenated margarine
Cholesterol-free margarine
Vanaspati

Butter
Vegetable oils
Animal fats (e.g. lard)
Peanut butter
Out-of-home consumption

The Margarine Market within the Oils & Fats sector in Kenya is witnessing subdued growth, influenced by fluctuating raw material prices, changing consumer preferences towards healthier options, and competition from butter and other spreads.

Customer preferences: Consumers in Kenya are increasingly prioritizing health-conscious choices, leading to a notable shift towards low-fat and plant-based margarine options. This trend is influenced by a growing awareness of nutrition and wellness, particularly among younger demographics who value sustainable and healthier alternatives. Additionally, the rise of busy lifestyles has prompted a demand for convenient, ready-to-use spreads that align with quick meal preparation. Cultural preferences also play a role, as traditional foods are being reimagined with healthier substitutes, further driving the margarine market's evolution.

Trends in the market: In Kenya, the margarine market within the Oils & Fats sector is experiencing a surge in demand for low-fat and plant-based options, driven by an increasing awareness of health and nutrition among consumers, particularly younger generations. This shift reflects a broader trend towards sustainable and healthier eating habits, as busy lifestyles necessitate convenient, ready-to-use spreads that accommodate quick meal preparation. Additionally, cultural adaptations of traditional dishes using healthier margarine alternatives are reshaping consumer preferences, presenting opportunities for industry stakeholders to innovate and diversify their product offerings to meet evolving market needs.

Local special circumstances: In Kenya, the margarine market within the Oils & Fats sector is shaped by a mix of geographical, cultural, and regulatory factors. The country's diverse agricultural landscape supports the sourcing of local oils, which enhances the appeal of homegrown products. Culturally, the integration of margarine into staple foods like ugali and chapati reflects traditional cooking practices, fostering acceptance of healthier alternatives. Moreover, government regulations promoting nutrition labeling and food safety standards are encouraging manufacturers to innovate, ensuring that products align with the rising health consciousness among consumers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The margarine market in Kenya is significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as commodity prices, inflation rates, and consumer income levels. Fluctuations in global oil prices can directly impact production costs, affecting pricing strategies for margarine products. Additionally, the national economic health, characterized by GDP growth and employment rates, plays a crucial role in consumer purchasing power, which in turn influences demand for various margarine brands. Fiscal policies, including taxation on food products and subsidies for local agriculture, further shape market dynamics, promoting local sourcing and competitiveness while also aligning with health trends that prioritize affordable, nutritious options for consumers.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the total consumer spending on food, which comprises all private household spending on food that is meant for at-home consumption (out-of-home consumption is not accounted for).

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a top-down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Food market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year.