Tomato Ketchup - NAFTA | Statista Market Forecast

Revenue in the Tomato Ketchup market amounts to US$7.15bn in 2024. The market is expected to grow annually by 3.09% (CAGR 2024-2029).
In global comparison, most revenue is generated United States (US$6bn in 2024).
In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$14.01 are generated in 2024.
In the Tomato Ketchup market, volume is expected to amount to 2.26bn kg by 2029. The Tomato Ketchup market is expected to show a volume growth of 1.0% in 2025.0.
The average volume per person in the Tomato Ketchup market is expected to amount to 4.2kg in 2024.

Definition:

The Tomato Ketchup market covers sauces that are largely derived from tomatoes. It is frequently used as the foundation for other sauces as well as a topping or component in many different types of food, including pasta, pizza, and soups.

Additional Information:

The market comprises revenue and average revenue per capita, volume and average volume per capita, price per unit (unit refers to kilogram), sales channels. The market encompasses retail sales through both online and offline sales channels to private end customers (B2C). The market only covers at-home consumption; out-of-home consumption is not included.

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Tomato ketchup
Tomato-based sauces similar to ketchup
Tomato sauces
Sieved tomatoes
No added sugar tomato ketchup, flavored tomato ketchup

Other sauces (e.g. chutneys, soya sauce, mayonnaise, mustard)
Out-of-home consumption

The Tomato Ketchup market in NAFTA is experiencing minimal growth, influenced by factors such as changes in consumer preferences, health consciousness, and the convenience of online purchasing. This growth rate is impacted by the competitive nature of the Sauces & Spices market within the Food industry.

Customer preferences: In the Tomato Ketchup Market of the Sauces & Spices Market within The Food market, consumers are gravitating towards healthier and more sustainable options, leading to a rise in demand for organic and natural ketchup varieties. This trend is driven by a growing awareness of the negative impact of processed foods on health and the environment, as well as a desire for transparency and ethical sourcing. As consumers become more mindful of their food choices, companies are responding by offering cleaner and greener options in the ketchup market.

Trends in the market: In the Tomato Ketchup Market of the Sauces & Spices Market within The Food market, there is a growing trend towards healthier, all-natural options. This shift is driven by consumer demand for clean label products and increasing health consciousness. As a result, companies are introducing new organic and low-sugar ketchup options to cater to this trend. Additionally, there is a rise in demand for global flavors, with consumers seeking unique and exotic flavors. This trend is expected to continue, with potential implications for industry stakeholders who may need to adapt their products and marketing strategies to meet these changing consumer preferences.

Local special circumstances: In the Tomato Ketchup Market of the Sauces & Spices Market within The Food market, local factors play a crucial role in shaping the market dynamics. In Mexico, the market is heavily influenced by the country's close proximity to the United States and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This has resulted in a high demand for Mexican tomatoes, which are used to produce ketchup for the US market. Additionally, the cultural preference for spicy flavors has led to the development of unique ketchup recipes, catering to the local taste buds. Furthermore, strict regulations on food labeling and quality control have also impacted the market, ensuring consumer trust and safety.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The Tomato Ketchup Market of the Sauces & Spices Market within The Food market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as consumer spending patterns, economic stability, and trade policies. Countries with strong economic growth and stable consumer confidence are experiencing higher market demand for tomato ketchup, as it is considered a staple condiment in many cuisines. Additionally, the increasing global trade agreements, such as NAFTA, have facilitated the growth of the tomato ketchup market by reducing trade barriers and promoting international trade. Moreover, government initiatives to promote local agriculture and food production have also contributed to the growth of the tomato ketchup market in certain countries. These macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on the overall performance and growth of the tomato ketchup market within the Sauces & Spices Market of The Food market industry.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the total consumer spending on food, which comprises all private household spending on food that is meant for at-home consumption (out-of-home consumption is not accounted for).

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a top-down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Food market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year.