Margarine - NAFTA | Statista Market Forecast

Revenue in the Margarine market amounts to US$2.73bn in 2024. The market is expected to grow annually by 2.57% (CAGR 2024-2029).
In global comparison, most revenue is generated China (US$5bn in 2024).
In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$5.35 are generated in 2024.
In the Margarine market, volume is expected to amount to 995.40m kg by 2029. The Margarine market is expected to show a volume growth of 0.4% in 2025.0.
The average volume per person in the Margarine market is expected to amount to 1.91kg in 2024.

Definition:

Margarine is a butter substitute made from vegetable oils and contains a minimum of 80% fat. Margarine is typically less expensive and has less saturated fat than butter.

Additional Information:

The market comprises revenue and average revenue per capita, volume and average volume per capita, price per unit (unit refers to kilogram), sales channels. The market encompasses retail sales through both online and offline sales channels to private end customers (B2C). The market only covers at-home consumption; out-of-home consumption is not included.

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Regular margarine
Light or reduced-fat margarine
Soft margarine
Non-hydrogenated margarine
Cholesterol-free margarine
Vanaspati

Butter
Vegetable oils
Animal fats (e.g. lard)
Peanut butter
Out-of-home consumption

The Margarine market within the Oils & Fats sector in NAFTA is experiencing negligible growth, influenced by shifting consumer preferences towards healthier alternatives, increasing competition from spreads, and concerns over trans fats in margarine products.

Customer preferences: Consumers in the NAFTA region are gravitating towards plant-based and clean-label products, prompting a decline in traditional margarine consumption. This shift reflects a growing awareness of health and wellness, with younger demographics prioritizing whole food ingredients and transparency in food sourcing. Additionally, the rise of veganism and flexitarian diets is influencing purchasing decisions, as consumers seek alternatives that align with their ethical and health values. Consequently, innovative spreads that cater to these preferences are gaining traction, reshaping the margarine landscape.

Trends in the market: In the NAFTA region, the margarine market is experiencing a significant shift towards plant-based alternatives, driven by heightened consumer demand for health-conscious and transparent food options. The rise of vegan and flexitarian diets is reshaping purchasing habits, as consumers increasingly seek spreads that align with their ethical values and dietary preferences. This trend is prompting manufacturers to innovate, developing clean-label products that prioritize whole food ingredients. As a result, traditional margarine is facing declining sales, compelling industry stakeholders to adapt their strategies to meet evolving consumer expectations and capitalize on emerging market opportunities.

Local special circumstances: In the NAFTA region, the margarine market is being shaped by regional preferences and regulatory standards that differ from other markets. In the U.S., the emphasis on clean-label products is fueled by consumer demand for transparency, while Canada’s stringent food labeling regulations encourage a shift towards healthier, plant-based options. Additionally, Mexico's rich culinary traditions influence the use of margarine in traditional dishes, driving innovation in flavors and formulations. These local factors collectively impact consumer choices, pushing manufacturers to adapt and thrive in a competitive landscape.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The margarine market within the Oils & Fats sector in the NAFTA region is significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as commodity price fluctuations, consumer spending patterns, and trade policies. Global economic trends, including supply chain disruptions and inflation, can affect the cost of raw materials, impacting margarine pricing and profitability. National economic health indicators, such as GDP growth and unemployment rates, influence consumer purchasing power and preferences for premium versus value brands. Additionally, fiscal policies promoting health and wellness initiatives are steering manufacturers towards innovative, healthier margarine options, thereby reshaping product offerings to align with evolving consumer demands.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the total consumer spending on food, which comprises all private household spending on food that is meant for at-home consumption (out-of-home consumption is not accounted for).

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a top-down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Food market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year.