Fresh Fruits - NAFTA | Statista Market Forecast

Revenue in the Fresh Fruits market amounts to US$92.27bn in 2024. The market is expected to grow annually by 4.28% (CAGR 2024-2029).
In global comparison, most revenue is generated India (US$116bn in 2024).
In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$180.80 are generated in 2024.
In the Fresh Fruits market, volume is expected to amount to 28.87bn kg by 2029. The Fresh Fruits market is expected to show a volume growth of 2.6% in 2025.0.
The average volume per person in the Fresh Fruits market is expected to amount to 49.6kg in 2024.

Definition:

The Fresh Fruits market covers all types of fresh fruit that haven't been canned, frozen, dehydrated, or preserved in any way. This market is divided into five submarkets: apples & pears, bananas, berries & grapes, citrus fruits, and other fresh fruits such as peaches, mangos, pineapples, plums, and kiwis.

Additional Information:

The market comprises revenue and average revenue per capita, volume and average volume per capita, price per unit (unit refers to kilogram), sales channels. The market encompasses retail sales through both online and offline sales channels to private end customers (B2C). The market only covers at-home consumption; out-of-home consumption is not included.

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Apples & pears
Bananas
Berries & grapes
Citrus fruits
Stone and exotic fruits

Processed, dried and frozen fruits
Nuts
Mix cut fruit boxes
Out-of-home consumption

The Fresh Fruits Market within The Food market in NAFTA is facing negligible growth, influenced by factors such as shifting consumer preferences, seasonal availability, and competition from processed alternatives, which affect overall demand and market dynamics.

Customer preferences: Consumers are increasingly prioritizing health and wellness, driving a notable shift towards fresh, organic fruits and locally sourced produce. This trend is particularly pronounced among younger demographics, who place high value on sustainability and transparency in food sourcing. Additionally, cultural influences are reshaping preferences, with diverse culinary practices encouraging the exploration of exotic fruits. Lifestyle changes, such as the rise of plant-based diets, are further fueling demand for fresh fruits as essential components of nutritious meals and snacks.

Trends in the market: In the Fresh Fruits Market, there is a marked shift towards organic and locally sourced produce, driven by consumers prioritizing health and wellness. This trend is particularly strong among younger generations, who value sustainability and transparency in their food choices. Additionally, cultural diversity is influencing preferences, leading to an increased interest in exotic fruits. The rise of plant-based diets is further propelling the demand for fresh fruits as key ingredients in nutritious meals. These trends hold significant implications for industry stakeholders, who must adapt their sourcing and marketing strategies to align with evolving consumer values and preferences.

Local special circumstances: In Mexico, the Fresh Fruits Market is uniquely influenced by its diverse climate and rich agricultural heritage, allowing for year-round production of a variety of fruits, including avocados and berries. This geographical advantage not only supports local consumption but also boosts exports, particularly to the U.S. market under NAFTA. Cultural traditions, such as the celebration of local harvests, further enhance consumer interest in fresh, seasonal produce. Additionally, regulatory frameworks promoting organic farming practices are aligning with the growing demand for sustainable options, reshaping market dynamics.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The Fresh Fruits Market in Mexico is significantly shaped by macroeconomic factors such as global trade dynamics, national economic stability, and agricultural policies. The implementation of NAFTA facilitated smoother trade flows, enhancing Mexico's fruit export capabilities, particularly to the U.S. market. Additionally, Mexico's economic growth, characterized by a rising middle class, bolsters domestic demand for fresh produce. Government initiatives promoting sustainable agricultural practices further align with global trends towards health-conscious consumption. Fluctuating exchange rates and trade agreements also impact pricing and competitiveness, influencing market performance and export potential.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the total consumer spending on food, which comprises all private household spending on food that is meant for at-home consumption (out-of-home consumption is not accounted for).

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a top-down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Food market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year.

The fresh produce department is often counted as being one of the main determinants among consumers when selecting a grocery store. In 2022, the fruit and vegetable market in the U.S. was valued at over 5.8 billion U.S. dollars. In the same year, the sales of fresh fruit made up 45 percent of produce sales in the U.S., making it one of the most lucrative fresh food categories. In order to help drive sales, producers frequently launch in-store marketing campaigns. Ideas range from promoting the healthy benefits of fruit, to offering convenient, value-added snack-size options.