Milk Substitutes - NAFTA

NAFTA

Highlights

Revenue in the Milk Substitutes market amounts to US$4.84bn in 2024. The market is expected to grow annually by 8.90% (CAGR 2024-2029).
In global comparison, most revenue is generated China (US$10bn in 2024).
In relation to total population figures, per person revenues of US$9.49 are generated in 2024.
In the Milk Substitutes market, volume is expected to amount to 1.71bn kg by 2029. The Milk Substitutes market is expected to show a volume growth of 5.4% in 2025.0.
The average volume per person in the Milk Substitutes market is expected to amount to 2.4kg in 2024.

Key regions:

Market definitionIn-Scope/Out-of-scopeMarket structureMethodology

The Milk Substitutes Market in NAFTA is experiencing minimal growth, influenced by factors such as increasing consumer preference for plant-based alternatives and the convenience of online shopping. This market is expected to continue its gradual growth due to a shift towards healthier dietary choices.

Customer preferences: As health and wellness continue to be top priorities for consumers, there has been a rise in demand for plant-based milk substitutes in the Dairy Products & Eggs Market within The Food market. This trend is driven by a growing interest in vegan and vegetarian diets, as well as concerns over the environmental impact of traditional dairy production. Additionally, the increasing availability of innovative and flavorful alternatives, such as almond and oat milk, is attracting a wider consumer base.

Trends in the market: The Milk Substitutes Market of the Dairy Products & Eggs Market within The Food market is experiencing a shift towards plant-based alternatives, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthier and environmentally-friendly options. This trend is expected to continue, with a projected CAGR of 11.8% from 2020 to 2027. This presents opportunities for industry stakeholders to innovate and cater to this growing segment, while also facing challenges such as competition and regulatory hurdles. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated this trend, as consumers look for immune-boosting and shelf-stable products.

Local special circumstances: In Canada, the Milk Substitutes Market is heavily influenced by the country's supply management system, which limits the import of dairy products and keeps prices high for domestic producers. This protectionist policy has resulted in a smaller market for milk substitutes compared to other countries, as consumers have limited options and less incentive to seek out alternative products. Additionally, Canada's cold climate and vast rural areas make it challenging for dairy alternatives to gain traction, as traditional dairy products are ingrained in the country's food culture.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The Milk Substitutes Market in the Dairy Products & Eggs Market is greatly impacted by macroeconomic factors such as government policies, economic stability, and global trade agreements. With the implementation of NAFTA, the market has seen increased competition from imported dairy products, leading to a shift in consumer preferences towards milk substitutes. Additionally, national economic health in countries with strong dairy industries can also impact the market, as it affects the purchasing power of consumers and the availability of resources for production. Fiscal policies, such as subsidies and tariffs, can also greatly influence the market's performance by either promoting or hindering its growth. Overall, the market is highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors and their impact on the dairy industry as a whole.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on the total consumer spending on food, which comprises all private household spending on food that is meant for at-home consumption (out-of-home consumption is not accounted for).

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a top-down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Food market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year.