Public Transportation - Kenya

  • Kenya
  • Kenya's Public Transportation market is expected to generate a revenue of US$0.43bn in 2024.
  • The revenue is projected to experience an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 5.43%, which will result in an estimated market volume of US$0.56bn by 2029.
  • By 2029, the number of users in the Public Transportation market is expected to be 42.36m users.
  • The user penetration rate is projected to decrease from 58.4% in 2024 to 68.4% by 2029.
  • The average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to be US$13.00.
  • Furthermore, 14% of the total revenue in the Public Transportation market is expected to come from online sales by 2029.
  • In comparison to other countries, United States is projected to generate the highest revenue with US$52bn in 2024.
  • Kenya's public transportation sector is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of modern buses and the adoption of cashless payment systems.

Key regions: South America, Malaysia, China, Thailand, United States

 
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Analyst Opinion

The Public Transportation market in Kenya has been experiencing significant growth and development in recent years. This can be attributed to several factors, including customer preferences, trends in the market, local special circumstances, and underlying macroeconomic factors. Customer preferences in the Public Transportation market in Kenya have shifted towards more convenient and efficient modes of transportation. This has led to an increased demand for public transportation services that offer reliability, affordability, and ease of use. Customers are increasingly opting for public transportation options that provide faster travel times, better connectivity, and improved comfort. As a result, there has been a rise in the use of buses, minibuses, and trains in Kenya's major cities and towns. Trends in the market indicate a growing emphasis on sustainable and environmentally-friendly transportation solutions. This is driven by the need to reduce congestion, air pollution, and carbon emissions in urban areas. The Kenyan government has been actively promoting the use of public transportation as a means to achieve these goals. This has led to the expansion of public transportation infrastructure, including the construction of new bus terminals, railway stations, and dedicated bus lanes. Additionally, there has been an increase in the adoption of electric and hybrid buses, as well as the integration of technology in public transportation systems, such as mobile ticketing and real-time tracking. Local special circumstances in Kenya have also contributed to the development of the Public Transportation market. The country's rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in increased mobility needs, particularly in urban areas. This has necessitated the improvement and expansion of public transportation services to cater to the growing demand. Additionally, the presence of a large informal sector in Kenya has led to the proliferation of minibuses, known as matatus, which provide affordable and flexible transportation options for many Kenyans. Underlying macroeconomic factors have played a significant role in the development of the Public Transportation market in Kenya. The country's strong economic growth and rising middle class have increased disposable incomes and purchasing power, enabling more people to afford public transportation services. Furthermore, government investment in infrastructure development, including roads, railways, and airports, has improved accessibility and connectivity, making public transportation a more attractive option for commuters. In conclusion, the Public Transportation market in Kenya is experiencing growth and development due to customer preferences for convenience and efficiency, trends towards sustainable transportation solutions, local special circumstances such as rapid urbanization and a large informal sector, and underlying macroeconomic factors including strong economic growth and government investment in infrastructure. These factors are likely to continue driving the expansion of the Public Transportation market in Kenya in the coming years.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and online shares of public transportation.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party studies and reports, federal statistical offices, industry associations, and price data. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as demographic data, GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device usage. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

Overview

  • Revenue
  • Sales Channels
  • Analyst Opinion
  • Users
  • Global Comparison
  • Methodology
  • Key Market Indicators
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