Travel & Tourism - Kenya

Kenya

in Kenya, a country in East Africa, is expected to witness a significant growth in its Travel & Tourism market.
By 2024, the projected revenue for this market is estimated to be US$921.30m.
The market is expected to exhibit a compound annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 6.86%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$1,284.00m by 2029.
The largest market in Kenya's Travel & Tourism market is the Package Holidays market, with a projected market volume of US$316.80m in 2024.
The number of users in this market is expected to reach 9,084.00k users by 2029.
In 2024, the user penetration for this market is 13.3%, which is expected to increase to 17.9% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to amount to US$123.20.
Furthermore, it is expected that 59% of the total revenue in the Travel & Tourism market in Kenya will be generated through online sales by 2029.
In comparison to other countries, United States is projected to generate the most revenue in the Travel & Tourism market with US$214bn in 2024.
Kenya's travel and tourism industry is rebounding with the resumption of international flights and a renewed focus on sustainable safari experiences.

Key regions: Malaysia, Europe, Singapore, Vietnam, United States

Definition:

The Travel & Tourism market encompasses a diverse range of accommodation services catering to the needs and preferences of travelers. This dynamic market includes package holidays, hotel accommodations, private vacation rentals, camping experiences, and cruises.

Structure:

The market consists of five further markets.

The Cruises market covers multi-day vacation trips on a cruise ship. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues.
The Vacation Rentals market comprises of private accommodation bookings which includes private holiday homes and houses as well as short-term rental of private rooms or flats.
The Hotels market includes stays in hotels and professionally run guest houses.
The Package Holidays market comprises of travel deals that normally contain travel and accommodation sold for one price, although optional further provisions can be included such as catering and tourist services.
The Camping market includes bookings at camping sites for pitches using tents, campervans, or trailers. These can be associated with big chains or privately managed campsites.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Travel & Tourism market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues and users for the above-mentioned markets. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year. Additional definitions for each market can be found within the respective market pages.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

Prominent players in this sector include online travel agencies (OTAs) like Expedia and Opodo, as well as tour operators such as TUI. Specialized platforms like Hotels.com, Booking.com, and Airbnb facilitate the online booking of hotels and private accommodations, contributing significantly to the market's vibrancy.

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Analyst Opinion

Kenya's Travel & Tourism market is experiencing a surge in interest and activity, making it a key player in the region.

Customer preferences: Travelers in Kenya are increasingly seeking unique and authentic experiences, moving away from traditional tourist hotspots and embracing off-the-beaten-path destinations. This shift in preferences is driving the growth of niche tourism sectors such as ecotourism, cultural tourism, and adventure tourism.

Trends in the market: One notable trend in the Kenyan Travel & Tourism market is the rise of domestic tourism. Kenyan residents are exploring their own country more than ever before, contributing significantly to the local economy. Additionally, there is a growing demand for sustainable and responsible tourism practices, with travelers showing a preference for eco-friendly accommodations and activities.

Local special circumstances: Kenya's diverse landscape and rich cultural heritage make it a unique and attractive destination for travelers. From the iconic Maasai Mara National Reserve to the pristine beaches of the Kenyan coast, the country offers a wide range of experiences for visitors. The presence of wildlife reserves and national parks also sets Kenya apart as a top safari destination.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the Travel & Tourism market in Kenya can be attributed to various macroeconomic factors, including government initiatives to promote the sector, infrastructure development, and a stable political environment. The country's strategic location in East Africa and its well-established tourism infrastructure further support its position as a leading travel destination in the region.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of hotels, vacation rentals, cruises, package holidays, and camping.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.