Agricultural Product Derivatives - Poland

Poland

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach US$203.20bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 0.47% resulting in a projected total amount of US$208.00bn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to US$0.48 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (US$12,320.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 460.90k by 2029.

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Analyst Opinion

The Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Poland is witnessing a notable surge in activity and interest.

Customer preferences: Customers in Poland are increasingly turning to Agricultural Product Derivatives as a way to diversify their investment portfolios and hedge against market volatility. The appeal of these financial instruments lies in their potential for high returns and the opportunity to speculate on price movements without owning the physical commodities.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Poland is the growing participation of retail investors. As more individuals seek alternative investment options, online trading platforms have made it easier for retail traders to access these derivatives. Additionally, there is a rising interest in environmentally friendly derivatives linked to sustainable agriculture practices, reflecting a broader global trend towards responsible investing.

Local special circumstances: Poland's strong agricultural sector plays a significant role in shaping the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in the country. The diversity of agricultural products produced in Poland, such as grains, fruits, and vegetables, provides a wide range of underlying assets for derivative contracts. Moreover, the government's support for agricultural development and modernization initiatives contributes to the overall stability and growth of the market.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The economic stability and steady GDP growth in Poland have created a favorable environment for the development of the Agricultural Product Derivatives market. As the country continues to attract foreign investments and expand its agricultural exports, market participants are optimistic about the future prospects of the derivatives market. Additionally, regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and investor protection have bolstered confidence in the market.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.