Grocery Delivery - Eastern Europe

The Grocery Delivery market in Eastern Europe is expected to reach a revenue of US$8.24bn by 2024.
This projection indicates an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 6.41%, leading to a projected market volume of US$11.24bn by 2029.
In comparison, the Retail Delivery market is projected to have a market volume of US$6.81bn in 2024.
Among all countries, China is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Grocery Delivery market, reaching US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be US$271.10 in 2024.
Furthermore, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 40.7m users by 2029.
Lastly, the user penetration in the Grocery Delivery market is estimated to be 12.8% in 2024.
In Eastern Europe, grocery delivery services have experienced exponential growth in countries like Poland, with a surge in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The Eastern European grocery delivery market has been experiencing significant growth in recent years.

Customer preferences: Customers in Eastern Europe are increasingly turning to online grocery shopping and delivery due to convenience and time-saving benefits. This trend is particularly prominent in urban areas where consumers have busy lifestyles and limited time for shopping. Additionally, younger generations are more likely to shop online and are willing to pay extra for fast and reliable delivery.

Trends in the market: The grocery delivery market in Eastern Europe is becoming increasingly competitive, with both local and international players entering the market. One trend that has emerged is the use of mobile apps for grocery ordering and delivery. This has made the process even more convenient for customers, as they can place orders and track deliveries on their smartphones. Another trend is the expansion of delivery options, including same-day and next-day delivery, which has become a key differentiator for companies in the market.

Local special circumstances: Eastern Europe has a large rural population, which has presented challenges for grocery delivery companies. Many areas are difficult to access, and the infrastructure for online ordering and delivery is not as developed as in urban areas. Additionally, there are cultural differences in shopping habits, with some consumers preferring to inspect products in person before making a purchase. However, these challenges have also presented opportunities for companies to innovate and develop new solutions for rural customers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the grocery delivery market in Eastern Europe can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors. Firstly, rising internet penetration rates have made online shopping more accessible to consumers. Secondly, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards online shopping, as consumers have been forced to stay at home and avoid crowded public spaces. Finally, the growth of the e-commerce sector in general has created a more favorable environment for grocery delivery companies to operate in.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Ecommerce market, in a PDF format.