Cruises - Southern Europe | Statista Market Forecast

The projected revenue for the Cruises market is expected to reach US$2.00bn in 2024, with an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.88%.
This growth is expected to result in a projected market volume of US$2.31bn by 2029.
In Southern Europe, the number of users in this market is expected to amount to 2.39m users by 2029, with a user penetration rate of 0.82% in 2024, increasing to 1.01% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is anticipated to amount to US$1.03k.
Furthermore, it is projected that by 2029, 26% of the total revenue generated in the Cruises market will be through online sales.
It is noteworthy that in terms of global comparison, United States is expected to generate the most revenue, with a projected revenue of US$25bn in 2024.
Spain's cruise market is rebounding with new health protocols and a focus on domestic tourism.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in Southern Europe has been experiencing significant growth and development in recent years.

Customer preferences: Travelers in Southern Europe are increasingly seeking unique and experiential travel opportunities, which has led to a rise in demand for cruise vacations. Customers are looking for curated experiences, personalized services, and cultural immersion during their cruise holidays.

Trends in the market: In Italy, the Cruises market is witnessing a trend towards smaller, luxury cruises that explore off-the-beaten-path destinations along the Mediterranean coast. This shift is driven by a desire for authentic experiences and avoiding overcrowded tourist hotspots.

Local special circumstances: Spain, with its extensive coastline and rich maritime history, is becoming a popular cruise destination in Southern Europe. The country's ports are investing in infrastructure to accommodate larger cruise ships, attracting major cruise lines to include Spanish ports in their itineraries.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The improving economic conditions in countries like Greece and Portugal have contributed to the growth of the Cruises market in Southern Europe. As disposable incomes rise, more people are able to afford luxury cruise vacations, boosting the overall market demand.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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