Public Transportation - Nigeria | Statista Market Forecast

By 2024, the Public Transportation market in Nigeria is expected to generate a revenue of US$1.60bn.
In the following years, an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 6.75% is projected, which will lead to a market volume of US$2.22bn by 2029.
As for the number of users in this market, it is expected to reach 211.30m users by 2029.
The user penetration rate is projected to decrease from 68.4% in 2024 to 82.2% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to be US$10.22.
Furthermore, it is projected that 19% of the total revenue in the Public Transportation market will be generated through online sales by 2029.
In comparison to other countries, United States is expected to generate the most revenue, with a projected revenue of US$52bn in 2024.
Nigeria's public transportation is characterized by inefficiencies, lack of infrastructure, and safety concerns, leading to increased demand for private transportation options.

Definition:

Local public transportation is used to transport people in everyday traffic by road, water, railway tracks, and sometimes by air (cable car) for local and regional transportation. In this market, revenues generated by ticket sales from public transportation companies, such as BVG (Berlin Transport Company), TfL (Transport for London), or Toei (東京都交通局: Tokyo Metropolitan Bureau of Transportation) are considered. Most providers sell single and group tickets or time-limited tickets for up to one year. This market does not take long-distance public transportation with national travel offerings into consideration.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Flights market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), user numbers and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues and users for the above-mentioned markets. User numbers show only those individuals who have made a reservation, independent of the number of travelers on the booking. Each user is only counted once per year. Additional definitions for each market can be found within the respective market pages.

The booking volume includes all booked rides made by users from the selected region, regardless of where the ride took place.

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Local and regional public transportation by road, water, rail, and air
Regular transportation by bus, train, tram, subway, suburban trains, ferries, cable car, and trolleybus
All online and offline bookings for public transportation tickets and subscriptions, irrespective of the sales channel
Time-limited subscriptions and single tickets

Tickets for long-distance public transportation with nationwide travel offers
Private transportation
Freight transportation

The Public Transportation market in Nigeria has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, driven by several key factors. Customer preferences have shifted towards more convenient and efficient modes of transportation, leading to increased demand for public transportation services. Additionally, local special circumstances and underlying macroeconomic factors have also contributed to the development of the market. Customer preferences in Nigeria have been influenced by the growing urban population and increasing traffic congestion in major cities. As more people move to urban areas in search of better job opportunities, the demand for public transportation has risen. Customers are looking for affordable and reliable transportation options that can help them navigate the congested roads and reach their destinations on time. This has led to a surge in the use of buses, taxis, and ride-sharing services. Trends in the market indicate a shift towards more sustainable and eco-friendly modes of transportation. With growing concerns about climate change and environmental degradation, customers are increasingly opting for public transportation options that reduce their carbon footprint. This has led to the adoption of electric buses and the promotion of cycling and walking as alternative modes of transportation. Government initiatives and policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have also played a role in driving this trend. Local special circumstances in Nigeria, such as the high cost of car ownership and limited parking spaces in urban areas, have further fueled the demand for public transportation. Owning a car in Nigeria can be expensive, with high import duties and maintenance costs. As a result, many people rely on public transportation as a more affordable and convenient option. Limited parking spaces in cities also make it impractical for individuals to own cars, leading them to rely on public transportation for their daily commute. Underlying macroeconomic factors have also contributed to the growth of the Public Transportation market in Nigeria. The country's economy has been expanding, leading to increased urbanization and a rise in disposable incomes. This has resulted in higher demand for transportation services, as more people can afford to travel and explore different parts of the country. Additionally, government investments in infrastructure development, such as the construction of new roads and the expansion of public transportation networks, have also played a role in driving the market. In conclusion, the Public Transportation market in Nigeria is developing rapidly due to changing customer preferences, local special circumstances, and underlying macroeconomic factors. Customers are seeking convenient and sustainable modes of transportation, while factors such as high car ownership costs and limited parking spaces have further fueled the demand for public transportation. The country's expanding economy and government investments in infrastructure have also contributed to the growth of the market.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and online shares of public transportation.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party studies and reports, federal statistical offices, industry associations, and price data. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as demographic data, GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device usage. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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