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Bike-sharing - Southern Africa

Southern Africa

Southern Africa is projected to experience a significant growth in the Bike-sharing market, with revenue expected to reach US$10.87m by 2024.
Moreover, the market volume is projected to increase to US$14.15m by 2029, showing an annual growth rate of 5.42% during the period from 2024 to 2029.
The number of users in the Bike-sharing market is expected to amount to 2.18m users by 2029, with a user penetration of 2.5% in 2024 and 3.0% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to amount to US$6.08.
Additionally, 85% of the total revenue in the Bike-sharing market is expected to be generated through online sales by 2029.
It is worth noting that in comparison to other countries, China is projected to generate the most revenue in the Bike-sharing market, with US$5,515m in 2024.
Bike-sharing is gaining popularity in Southern Africa, with companies like Mobike and OFO starting to expand their services in South Africa.

Key regions: South America, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia

Definition:

The Bike-sharing market includes short-term bike-sharing services. In bike-sharing services, bicycles are generally owned by a bike-sharing provider and are independently reserved by customers around the clock. Customers are required to open an account with the bike-sharing provider and can then reserve bicycles. This is usually done with a smartphone app, but there are also service providers that allow reservations to be made via the provider's website, by telephone, or at a terminal.

The two most frequently used bike-sharing varieties are the following: station-based (e.g., Stadtrad and Citi Bike New York) and free-floating (such as nextbike and ofo). With station-based bike-sharing, a bicycle is retrieved from a bike-sharing station and returned to either the same station or dropped off at another station. With free-floating bike-sharing, it is possible to find bicycles everywhere within the service provider's business zone and leave the bicycle anywhere in accordance with traffic regulations. Peer-to-peer bike-sharing is not included in the market definition of this market. Moped-sharing services are not available in all countries; thus, only a limited number of countries and regions can be selected.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Bike-sharing market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), user numbers and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues and users for the mentioned market. User numbers show only those individuals who have made a reservation, independent of the number of travelers on the booking. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked rides made by users from the selected region, regardless of where the ride took place.

For further information on the data displayed, refer to the info button right next to each box.

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Analyst Opinion

The Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa is experiencing significant growth and development in recent years.

Customer preferences: One of the main reasons for the growth of the Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa is the increasing demand for sustainable and affordable transportation options. With rising concerns about climate change and the need to reduce carbon emissions, more people are opting for eco-friendly modes of transportation. Bike-sharing provides a convenient and cost-effective solution for short-distance travel, making it an attractive option for commuters and tourists alike. Additionally, the popularity of cycling as a recreational activity has also contributed to the growth of the Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa.

Trends in the market: The Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa is witnessing several trends that are shaping its growth. Firstly, there is a growing emphasis on technology and innovation in the industry. Bike-sharing companies are increasingly using advanced technologies such as mobile apps, GPS tracking systems, and smart locks to enhance user experience and improve operational efficiency. These technological advancements have made it easier for customers to locate and rent bikes, leading to increased adoption of Bike-sharing services. Another trend in the market is the expansion of Bike-sharing networks in urban areas. As more cities in Southern Africa are experiencing rapid urbanization, the demand for alternative transportation options is on the rise. Bike-sharing companies are capitalizing on this trend by expanding their operations and establishing partnerships with local governments to provide Bike-sharing services in major cities. This expansion is not only meeting the growing demand for sustainable transportation but also helping to alleviate traffic congestion and reduce air pollution in urban areas.

Local special circumstances: The Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa is also influenced by local special circumstances. One such circumstance is the high prevalence of informal transportation systems in the region. In many African countries, informal modes of transportation such as minibusses and motorcycles dominate the transportation sector. However, Bike-sharing offers a formal and regulated alternative that is safer and more reliable. This has led to increased acceptance and adoption of Bike-sharing services in Southern Africa.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Several underlying macroeconomic factors are driving the growth of the Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa. Firstly, the region is experiencing steady economic growth, which has led to an increase in disposable income and a higher standard of living. As a result, more people have the financial means to afford Bike-sharing services, leading to increased demand. Additionally, the tourism industry in Southern Africa is thriving, with millions of tourists visiting the region each year. Bike-sharing provides an attractive option for tourists to explore and experience the local culture and attractions. This has created a significant market for Bike-sharing companies, who are catering to the needs of tourists by offering flexible rental options and convenient pick-up and drop-off locations. In conclusion, the Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa is growing rapidly due to customer preferences for sustainable and affordable transportation options, as well as the expansion of Bike-sharing networks in urban areas. Local special circumstances, such as the prevalence of informal transportation systems, and underlying macroeconomic factors, including steady economic growth and a thriving tourism industry, are further driving the growth of the market. With the continued focus on sustainability and the increasing demand for alternative transportation options, the Bike-sharing market in Southern Africa is expected to continue its upward trajectory in the coming years.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and online shares of bike-sharing services.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party studies and reports, federal statistical offices, industry associations, and price data. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as demographic data, GDP, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device usage. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.