Tobacco Products - Southern Africa

Southern Africa

The Tobacco Products market in Southern Africa is projected to generate a revenue of US$15.3bn in 2024.
This market is expected to experience an annual growth rate of 5.80% from 2024 to 2029 (CAGR 2024-2029).
Among the various segments within the market, the largest one is Cigarettes, which is estimated to have a market volume of US$14.4bn in 2024.
When compared on a global scale, in China emerges as the leading revenue generator in the Tobacco Products market, with an expected revenue of US$298,500m in 2024.
In terms of per capita revenue, each individual in Southern Africa is anticipated to contribute US$269.70 to the Tobacco Products market in 2024.
Furthermore, online sales are predicted to account for a mere 0.1% of the total revenue generated in the Tobacco Products market by 2024.
Despite efforts to reduce tobacco consumption in Southern Africa, the market remains strong due to cultural traditions and lack of effective regulations.

Key regions: Worldwide, India, United States, China, Germany

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

Tobacco products have been the focus of tightening regulations for decades. Higher taxation and increasing health awareness among consumers have reduced smoking rates and volume consumption significantly in the past. Over the forecast period, a certain stabilization of these losses is expected to happen. Most growth in the sector, however, is attributable to novel, risk-reduced products that can broadly be classified as vaping products or e-cigarettes (e.g., Juul).

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Tobacco products, namely, Cigarettes, Cigars, Smoking Tobacco, and E-Cigarettes.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Consumer Insights Global Survey), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). Survey data is reweighted for representativeness.