Market Insights Consumer Tobacco Products

Cigarettes - Kenya

Kenya

In 2024, the revenue in the Cigarettes market in Kenya amounts to Ksh US$0.7bn.
It is projected that the market will experience an annual growth rate of 2.10% (CAGR 2024-2029).
When compared globally, in China generates the highest revenue in the Cigarettes market, amounting to Ksh US$282,900m in 2024.
Taking into account the total population figures, it is estimated that per person revenues of Ksh US$17.26 will be generated in the Cigarettes market in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2029, the volume in the Cigarettes market is expected to reach 4.5bn pieces.
However, there is a projected volume growth decline of -3.1% in 2025.
Furthermore, the average volume per person in the Cigarettes market is expected to be 121.4pieces in 2024.
Despite efforts to discourage smoking, Kenya continues to have a significant demand for cigarettes, with a growing preference for locally manufactured brands.

Key regions: Singapore, China, Worldwide, Germany, United States

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

Cigarettes represent more than 90% of the value in the traditional Tobacco Products market. The mainstay of Big Tobacco has come under heightened scrutiny from regulatory bodies and the public, which has led to an enduring decline in volume sales. Due to high levels of taxation, roughly half of all revenues go directly to the state in the form of various excise duties and sales taxes.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Cigarettes.

Modeling approach:

The segment size is determined through a bottom-up approach. In order to analyze the markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Consumer Insights Global Survey), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). Survey data is reweighted for representativeness.