Cigarettes - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast

In the year 2024, the Cigarettes market worldwide generated a revenue of US$854.0bn.
It is predicted that this market will experience an annual growth rate of 2.37% (CAGR 2024-2029).
When comparing global figures, it is noteworthy that China generates the highest revenue in this segment, reaching US$283bn in 2024.
On a per person basis, the revenue generated in the Cigarettes market amounts to US$131.10 in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2029, it is expected that the volume in the Cigarettes market will reach a total of 5.2tn pieces units.
However, in 2025.0, a slight decline in volume growth is anticipated, with a rate of -0.6%.
On average, each person is projected to consume 807.5pieces units of cigarettes in the year 2024.
The Cigarettes market is a significant market segment contributing to the global economy.
Cigarette consumption in the United States has been declining steadily due to increased awareness of health risks and stricter regulations, however the industry still remains profitable as the hike in prices offsets the losses made by lower volume sales.

Definition:

The Cigarettes segment includes finished (filtered) Cigarettes that along with tobacco can contain additional flavourings or substitutes (e.g. coarsely ground cloves). Tobacco for rolling cigarettes is considered separately and is not included in this segment. The five most important producers worldwide are the China National Tobacco Corporation, Philip Morris International (PMI), British American Tobacco (BAT), Japan Tobacco International (JTI) and Imperial Tobacco.

Additional information:

The market comprises revenue and average revenue per capita, volume and average volume per capita, price per unit, and sales channels. To give a better representation of per capita figures, the population considered is 15 years and above. The price per unit denotes the cost of a single cigarette.

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(Filtered) Cigarettes such as Marlboro Reds, Marlboro Golds, Camel Blues, etc

Untaxed Cigarettes such as illicit cigarettes
Smoking Tobacco (RYO, pipe tobacco) such as Marlboro Gold Fine Cut Hand Rolling Tobacco, Gold Leaf Hand Rolling Tobacco, etc
Cigars and cigarillos such as Davidoff Nicaragua Diadema, Rock Patel Sixty Sixty, etc

Cigarette sales have been declining in most countries over the years. Surprisingly, this trend was reversed during the COVID-19 pandemic in many markets, including the U.S., which saw a growth of 2.3% in sales volumes in 2020 compared to 2019. Among the key factors that contributed to sales increases in many countries were stringent border controls during the pandemic, which resulted in a decrease in the illicit trade of cigarettes, and pandemic-related anxiety, which led to pantry loading.

However, this was only a short-term phenomenon, and we expect volume sales to continue declining in the majority of markets. Nevertheless, there will be a few exceptions to this trend, particularly in Asian countries. In Indonesia, for example, the world's second largest market by volume, we expect cigarette sales to increase in the medium term due to factors such as a lax regulatory environment and cheap prices.

One of the threats to the industry that could cause disruption in the long term is the emergence of cigarette alternatives such as TAAT, which are marketed as lower-risk alternatives that provide the same experience as a traditional cigarette without containing nicotine or tobacco.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on consumer spending on Tobacco products, namely, Cigarettes, Cigars, Smoking Tobacco, and E-Cigarettes.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, trade data, national statistical office data, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Consumer Insights Global Survey), as well as performance factors. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as smoking rates, consumer spending, and consumer price index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques, such as exponential trend smoothing and regression analysis. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). Survey data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Consumer market, in a PDF format.