Wine - LATAM

Wine is widely regarded as an “experience good,” with consumers often facing challenges when attempting to evaluate the product's quality prior to consumption. The taste of wine is influenced by various factors, including the grape variety, climate and soil conditions, and the winemaking techniques employed. The Wine market is predominantly characterized by fragmentation, the absence of globally recognized products further exacerbates the evaluation of these products before consumption.

These challenges have given rise to the emergence of specialized liquor stores, wine clubs, and tasting rooms, as well as an increased focus on premiumization within the wine industry. Wine is often associated with luxury and opulence, particularly in the context of fine dining, with certain wine varieties and brands that may command significant prices. Furthermore, it is frequently used as a base for sauces or served as an accompaniment to food.

Looking ahead, one of the key obstacles that the Wine market faces will be inflation and the potential decrease in real income, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, given that wine shares characteristics with luxury goods. As income increases or decreases, demand for luxury goods increases or decreases more than proportionally.

In the future, increasing real incomes in emerging countries are predicted to offer more opportunities for volume growth for the Wine market. Moreover, value growth is expected to be led by premiumization, with consumers willing to pay a premium for wines perceived to be higher in quality and/or prestige.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.