Alcoholic Drinks - LATAM

Many industrialized countries are experiencing a stagnation or a decline in volume sales within the Alcoholic Drinks market. This can be attributed to the growing focus on health and wellness in recent years, a trend that has led some consumers to reduce their alcohol intake or even abstain from alcohol altogether.

Another challenge for the alcoholic drinks industry has always been protecting the younger population. Several measures have been taken to ensure their safety, including restrictions on the minimum legal drinking age and marketing regulations. Furthermore, there are countries where the sale of alcohol is prohibited, allowed only during specific times, or restricted due to religious reasons, resulting in significant variations in per capita alcohol consumption. Europe and North America show the highest per capita alcohol consumption, while Asia, where strict alcohol laws are enforced in some countries, has the lowest per capita consumption. Furthermore, the Alcoholic Drinks market was heavily affected by COVID-19-related restrictions. In particular, the out-of-home market endured repercussions from measures that were taken to prevent the spread of the virus, e.g., lockdowns and the closing of bars, restaurants, and other venues that typically sell alcoholic beverages.

Looking ahead, we anticipate that the Alcoholic Drinks market will stabilize following the ease of the COVID-19-related restrictions. While the bulk of volume growth is expected to occur in emerging markets, value growth is predicted to be driven by the premiumization of products.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.