Wine - China | Statista Market Forecast

Wine - China

China

Highlights

Revenue, at home (e.g., revenue generated in supermarkets and convenience stores) in the Wine market amounts to US$9.7bn in 2024.
Revenue, out-of-home (e.g., revenue generated in restaurants and bars) amounts to US$17.2bn in 2024.
Revenue, combined amounts to US$26.8bn in 2024.
The revenue, at home is expected to grow annually by 1.02% (CAGR 2024-2029).
In global comparison, most revenue, at home is generated United States (US$40bn in 2024).
In relation to total population figures, the average revenue per capita, at home of US$6.74 are generated in 2024.
In the Wine market, volume, at home is expected to amount to 913.9m L by 2024.
Volume, out-of-home is expected to amount to 739.3m L in 2024.
Volume, combined is expected to amount to 1.7bn L in 2024.
The Wine market is expected to show a volume growth, at home of -1.5% in 2025.0.
The average volume per person, at home in the Wine market is expected to amount to 0.64L in 2024.

Key regions:

Market definitionIn-Scope/Out-of-scopeMarket structureReportsMethodology

The Wine market in China has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, driven by changing consumer preferences and local special circumstances.

Customer preferences: Chinese consumers are increasingly embracing wine as a popular alcoholic beverage, shifting away from traditional spirits such as baijiu. This change in preferences can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, wine is often perceived as a healthier alternative to other alcoholic beverages, with many consumers recognizing its potential health benefits. Additionally, wine is seen as a symbol of sophistication and status, appealing to the growing middle class in China. As a result, there has been a surge in demand for both domestic and imported wines.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Chinese wine market is the rise of e-commerce platforms as a major distribution channel. Online platforms offer convenience, a wide selection of products, and competitive prices, making them increasingly popular among Chinese consumers. This trend has been further accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to a shift towards online shopping. As a result, many wine producers and distributors are focusing on strengthening their online presence to reach a larger customer base. Another trend in the Chinese wine market is the growing popularity of wine tourism. Chinese consumers are becoming more interested in wine culture and are increasingly willing to visit vineyards and wineries both domestically and internationally. This trend presents opportunities for wine producers to not only sell their products but also provide unique experiences for consumers.

Local special circumstances: China's wine market is unique due to its cultural and regulatory factors. The Chinese culture places a strong emphasis on gift-giving, and wine has become a popular gift choice for special occasions and business relationships. This has contributed to the growth of the premium wine segment in China, as consumers are willing to spend more on high-quality wines for gifting purposes. Furthermore, China's wine market is heavily influenced by government policies and regulations. For example, the Chinese government has implemented measures to promote domestic wine production and reduce reliance on imported wines. This has led to the development of a domestic wine industry, with Chinese winemakers improving the quality of their products to meet consumer demand.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The rapid economic growth in China has played a significant role in the development of the wine market. As disposable incomes continue to rise, Chinese consumers have more purchasing power and are willing to spend on premium products such as wine. Additionally, urbanization and the expansion of the middle class have contributed to the growth of the wine market, as consumers in urban areas are more exposed to international trends and have greater access to imported wines. In conclusion, the Wine market in China is experiencing growth due to changing customer preferences, the rise of e-commerce platforms, the popularity of wine tourism, local cultural and regulatory factors, and underlying macroeconomic factors. These factors have created a favorable environment for both domestic and international wine producers to tap into the Chinese market.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.