Cruises - Southern Africa | Statista Market Forecast

In 2024, the revenue for the Cruises market in Southern Africa is projected to reach US$169.00m.
Furthermore, it is estimated that the revenue will experience an annual growth rate of 11.51% (CAGR 2024-2029) which will result in a projected market volume of US$291.40m by 2029.
By 2029, the number of users in the Cruises market is expected to increase to 218.60k users.
The user penetration in this market is forecasted to be 0.22% in 2024, which is expected to hit 0.30% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Cruises market is anticipated to be US$1.08k.
It is expected that by 2029, 20% of the total revenue in the Cruises market in Southern Africa will be generated through online sales.
Comparing globally, United States is expected to generate the most revenue with US$25bn in 2024.
South Africa's cruise market is gaining popularity due to its stunning coastal scenery and unique cultural experiences.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in Southern Africa is experiencing a significant growth trajectory, driven by various factors unique to the region.

Customer preferences: Travelers in Southern Africa are increasingly drawn to cruise vacations due to the allure of exploring exotic destinations, enjoying luxurious amenities onboard, and experiencing a hassle-free travel experience. The convenience of unpacking only once while visiting multiple destinations appeals to customers seeking a relaxing yet adventurous holiday.

Trends in the market: South Africa, with its stunning coastline and vibrant port cities like Cape Town and Durban, is emerging as a popular cruise destination in Southern Africa. The country's diverse attractions, including wildlife safaris, vineyard tours, and cultural experiences, make it a compelling starting point for cruise itineraries. Additionally, the growing interest in eco-tourism has led to an increase in expedition cruises to explore the region's unique ecosystems and marine life.

Local special circumstances: Countries in Southern Africa, such as Namibia, Mozambique, and Madagascar, offer untapped potential for cruise operators looking to expand their routes. These destinations boast pristine beaches, rich cultural heritage, and diverse wildlife, providing a unique and enriching experience for cruise passengers. Furthermore, partnerships with local tour operators and community engagement initiatives have become integral to sustainable cruise tourism development in the region.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The economic growth and stability in Southern Africa have contributed to a rise in disposable income among the middle class, enabling more individuals to afford luxury travel experiences like cruises. Moreover, government initiatives to promote tourism infrastructure development, enhance port facilities, and streamline visa processes have further fueled the growth of the cruise market in the region. As Southern Africa continues to position itself as a sought-after travel destination, the cruises market is poised for continued expansion and innovation.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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