Cannabis

The NAFTA country's Cannabis market is forecasted to reach US$51.34bn by 2024.
The market is anticipated to demonstrate a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 3.09%, leading to a market volume of US$59.79bn by 2029.
When compared globally, the United States is expected to generate the most revenue ( US$42.98bn in 2024).
In terms of per capita figures, revenues of US$289.00 are generated per person in 2024.
NAFTA member countries are experiencing a surge in cannabis investment, with Mexico's recent legalization paving the way for a growing industry across the region.

Definition:
The Cannabis market covers products derived from the cannabis plant used for medical or recreational purposes. These products may include dried flowers, oils, edibles, tinctures, and topicals. Depending on the regulations in each country or state, these products are provided by dispensaries, pharmacies, and/or online platforms. They may be consumed in the form of smoking, vaporizing, eating, or applying topically.

Structure:
The market includes Medical, Pharmaceutical, and Recreational Cannabis as well as CBD Products. The Medical and Pharmaceutical Cannabis markets include products used to treat conditions such as chronic pain, mental disorders, and other medical conditions. The Recreational Cannabis and the the CBD Products markets include products used for personal enjoyment or leisure purposes. All cannabis markets include various forms of cannabis such as flowers, concentrates, edibles, and topicals.

Additional information:
Market values represent the revenues generated by retail prices paid to vendors, either directly or through distribution channels (excluding VAT). Reported market revenues include spending by consumers (B2C), companies (B2B), and governments (B2G).

Company examples: Canopy Growth Corporation, Aurora Cannabis, Curaleaf Holdings, Tilray, Green Thumb Industries, Trulieve Cannabis, Verano Holdings.

Recreational Cannabis
Medical Cannabis
Pharmaceutical Cannabis
CBD Products

Illegal cannabis
Cannabis cultivated for private use

The Cannabis market in NAFTA has been experiencing significant growth and evolution in recent years.

Customer preferences: Consumers in the NAFTA region have shown a growing interest in cannabis products for both medicinal and recreational purposes. The increasing acceptance and legalization of cannabis in certain member countries have led to a shift in consumer preferences towards a wider variety of products, including edibles, topicals, and concentrates. As a result, there is a rising demand for diverse and innovative cannabis offerings to cater to the evolving tastes of customers.

Trends in the market: In the United States, the largest market within NAFTA, the trend towards legalization at the state level has created a patchwork of regulations that vary across different regions. This has led to a complex market landscape with opportunities for both small craft producers and large corporations to thrive. Additionally, the Canadian market has been experiencing growth following the nationwide legalization of recreational cannabis, with a focus on quality and compliance to meet consumer expectations. Mexico, on the other hand, is in the process of legalizing cannabis, presenting a significant opportunity for market expansion and investment in the region.

Local special circumstances: Each country within NAFTA has its unique set of circumstances influencing the cannabis market. In the United States, the state-by-state legalization has created a diverse market with varying regulations and consumer preferences. Canada's early nationwide legalization has allowed the country to establish itself as a global leader in cannabis production and export. Mexico's move towards legalization is driven by changing perceptions of cannabis and the potential economic benefits it can bring, making it a key market to watch for future developments in the industry.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the cannabis market in NAFTA is also influenced by macroeconomic factors such as job creation, tax revenue generation, and international trade opportunities. The cannabis industry has the potential to create jobs in cultivation, retail, research, and ancillary services, contributing to economic growth in the region. Furthermore, the taxation of cannabis sales provides governments with additional revenue sources to fund public programs and services. The potential for international trade in cannabis products among NAFTA countries could further boost the market and create opportunities for collaboration and growth on a regional scale.

Data coverage:

Data encompasses B2B and B2C enterprises. Figures are based on companies' revenues, funding values and global consumer survey data. Revenues include retail, sales and taxes.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Top-Down approach, based on a specific rationale for each market market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party data. Next, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations such as tobacco spending per capita, medical product spending per capita, consumer spending and consumer spending for recreation purposes, population. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. For example, S-Curve function, ARIMA time series model and exponential curve function.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Health market, in a PDF format.

Cannabis or marijuana, the psychoactive drug from the cannabis plant is growing in popularity around the globe, both for recreational and medicinal uses. While there are many countries that have legalized cannabis in some capacity for medical purposes, only a handful have done so for recreational use. Even though cannabis is not federally legal in the United States, the combined legal states represent the largest market in the world. After the U.S., Canada, which legalized cannabis nation-wide in 2018 represents the next largest market. In 2021, a new coalition government was formed in Germany that indicated that the legalization of cannabis was on their agenda. Germany would be the largest legal adult-use market in Europe and would act as a test case for other countries on the continent considering the merits of legalization.