Recreational Cannabis - NAFTA | Statista Market Forecast

Revenue in the Recreational Cannabis market market of NAFTA is forecasted to reach US$31.53bn in 2024.
The revenue is anticipated to exhibit an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 3.97%, leading to a market volume of US$38.31bn by 2029.
When compared globally, the United States is expected to generate the highest revenue ( US$24.96bn in 2024).
In terms of per person revenues, US$2.25k are generated in 2024 based on total population figures.
In the NAFTA region, the recreational cannabis market is experiencing rapid growth and attracting significant investment due to changing regulations in the United States.

Definition:
The Recreational Cannabis market encompasses products derived from the cannabis plant that are used for leisure or personal enjoyment. These products can include dried flowers, oils, edibles, tinctures, and topicals. The availability of these products is subject to the regulations in each country or state, and they can be obtained from dispensaries, retail stores, or online platforms. Consumption methods vary, and can include smoking, vaporizing, eating, or applying topically.

Structure:
The Recreational Cannabis market is a subset of the broader cannabis market, which also includes medical and pharmaceutical cannabis as well as CBD products. The Recreational Cannabis market specifically pertains to products used for personal enjoyment, as opposed to the medical and pharmaceutical markets which focus on products used for treating medical conditions. The market includes various forms of cannabis such as flowers, concentrates, edibles, and topicals.

Additional information:
The market values represent the revenues generated by retail prices paid to vendors, either directly or through distribution channels (excluding VAT). Reported market revenues include spending by consumers (B2C).

Cannabis containing THC used for recreational purposes
Extracts
Dried cannabis
Edibles
Beverages

Medical cannabis
Pharmaceutical cannabis
CBD Products

The Recreational Cannabis market in NAFTA has been experiencing significant growth and development in recent years.

Customer preferences: Consumers in the NAFTA region are increasingly favoring a shift towards the legalization and acceptance of recreational cannabis. This trend is driven by changing attitudes towards cannabis, with many individuals viewing it as a more socially acceptable and less stigmatized product. Additionally, there is a growing interest in the potential health and wellness benefits associated with cannabis consumption, further driving consumer preferences in the market.

Trends in the market: In the United States, the recreational cannabis market has been expanding rapidly as more states legalize the use of cannabis for recreational purposes. This trend is driven by the increasing public support for cannabis legalization and the potential economic benefits that come with a regulated cannabis market. In Canada, the market has also seen significant growth following the nationwide legalization of recreational cannabis in 2018. The Canadian market is characterized by a strong regulatory framework that ensures product quality and safety, which has contributed to the overall growth and development of the industry.

Local special circumstances: Mexico, as part of NAFTA, has been making strides towards legalizing recreational cannabis. The country has the potential to become one of the largest cannabis markets globally due to its large population and favorable climate for cannabis cultivation. The legalization of recreational cannabis in Mexico would not only provide economic opportunities but also help combat illegal drug trafficking and promote social justice.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the recreational cannabis market in the NAFTA region is also influenced by underlying macroeconomic factors. The potential tax revenues generated from the cannabis industry present an attractive opportunity for governments, especially in the wake of economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the job creation and economic stimulus associated with the cannabis industry are appealing to policymakers looking to boost economic growth and recovery. These macroeconomic factors contribute to the overall development and expansion of the recreational cannabis market in the NAFTA region.

Data coverage:

Data encompasses B2B and B2C enterprises. Figures are based on companies' revenues, funding values and global consumer survey data. Revenues include retail, sales and taxes.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Top-Down approach, based on a specific rationale for each market market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, third-party data. Next, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations such as tobacco spending per capita, medical product spending per capita, consumer spending and consumer spending for recreation purposes, population. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. For example, S-Curve function, ARIMA time series model and exponential curve function.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Health market, in a PDF format.

Cannabis or marijuana, the psychoactive drug from the cannabis plant is growing in popularity around the globe, both for recreational and medicinal uses. While there are many countries that have legalized cannabis in some capacity for medical purposes, only a handful have done so for recreational use. Even though cannabis is not federally legal in the United States, the combined legal states represent the largest market in the world. After the U.S., Canada, which legalized cannabis nation-wide in 2018 represents the next largest market. In 2021, a new coalition government was formed in Germany that indicated that the legalization of cannabis was on their agenda. Germany would be the largest legal adult-use market in Europe and would act as a test case for other countries on the continent considering the merits of legalization.