Grocery Delivery - Tajikistan | Statista Market Forecast

The projected revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in Tajikistan is expected to reach US$4.86m in 2024.
It is anticipated to demonstrate an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 12.28%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$8.66m by 2029.
Meanwhile, the Retail Delivery market is projected to have a market volume of US$4.86m in 2024.
In a global comparison, China is expected to generate the highest revenue with US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be US$7.28 in 2024.
Additionally, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 1.0m users by 2029.
The user penetration rate in the Grocery Delivery market is anticipated to be 6.5% in 2024.
Despite limited infrastructure and logistical challenges, Tajikistan is experiencing a growing trend in grocery delivery services, catering to the convenience needs of its urban population.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The demand for convenience has led to the rise of the grocery delivery market in Tajikistan.

Customer preferences: Customers in Tajikistan are increasingly turning to online grocery shopping and delivery services due to the convenience it provides. With the busy lifestyles of people, online grocery shopping and delivery services have become a popular option. Customers appreciate the ease of ordering groceries from the comfort of their homes and having them delivered to their doorsteps. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has also accelerated the adoption of online grocery shopping and delivery services as people prefer to avoid crowded places.

Trends in the market: The grocery delivery market in Tajikistan is experiencing rapid growth. With the rise of e-commerce platforms, more and more grocery stores are partnering with these platforms to offer online grocery shopping and delivery services. Furthermore, there has been an increase in the number of specialized online grocery stores that offer a wide range of products, including fresh produce, dairy, and meat. These stores also offer same-day or next-day delivery services, which has further fueled the growth of the market.

Local special circumstances: Tajikistan is a landlocked country with a predominantly rural population. As a result, the grocery delivery market has been concentrated in urban areas, where there is a higher concentration of consumers. However, with the increasing popularity of online grocery shopping and delivery services, there is an opportunity for these services to expand to rural areas. Additionally, the country has a relatively low internet penetration rate, which has been a hindrance to the growth of the online grocery market. However, with the increasing availability of affordable smartphones and internet services, the internet penetration rate is expected to increase in the coming years.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Tajikistan has a rapidly growing economy, which has been a key driver of the grocery delivery market. The country has experienced steady economic growth over the past few years, which has resulted in an increase in disposable income. As a result, consumers are more willing to spend money on convenience services such as online grocery shopping and delivery. Furthermore, the government has been supportive of the e-commerce sector, which has created a favorable environment for the growth of the grocery delivery market.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Ecommerce market, in a PDF format.