Wine - Zambia

The Wine market in Zambia has been experiencing significant growth in recent years.

Customer preferences: Zambian consumers have shown an increasing interest in wine, with a growing number of individuals incorporating it into their social and cultural activities. Wine is no longer seen as a luxury item reserved for special occasions, but rather as a beverage that can be enjoyed on a regular basis. This shift in consumer preferences can be attributed to several factors, including increased exposure to international trends and a growing middle class with higher disposable incomes. Additionally, the health benefits associated with moderate wine consumption have also played a role in driving consumer demand.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Zambian wine market is the growing popularity of red wine. Red wine has gained traction among consumers due to its perceived health benefits, such as its antioxidant properties. This trend is in line with global consumption patterns, as red wine has been increasingly favored over white wine in many markets worldwide. Another trend in the Zambian wine market is the rise of wine tourism. As more consumers develop an interest in wine, they are seeking out experiences that allow them to learn more about different wine varieties and production processes. This has led to an increase in wine-related events and tours in the country, providing opportunities for both local and international wine producers.

Local special circumstances: Zambia's wine market is unique due to its geographical location and climate. The country's warm climate makes it suitable for the cultivation of certain grape varieties, particularly those used in the production of red wine. This has led to the emergence of local wine producers who are capitalizing on the favorable growing conditions. Additionally, Zambia's proximity to South Africa, a major wine-producing country, has facilitated the importation of a wide range of international wine brands. This has contributed to the diversification of the wine market, offering consumers a broader selection of wines to choose from.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the wine market in Zambia can be attributed to several macroeconomic factors. Firstly, the country has experienced steady economic growth in recent years, resulting in an expanding middle class with higher purchasing power. This has created a larger consumer base for wine products. Secondly, Zambia has seen an increase in tourism, with more international visitors coming to the country. This has created a demand for wine, both in hotels and restaurants, as well as in duty-free shops. Lastly, the government has implemented policies aimed at promoting the agricultural sector, including viticulture. These policies have encouraged investment in the wine industry, leading to the establishment of new vineyards and wineries in the country. Overall, the combination of changing consumer preferences, local special circumstances, and favorable macroeconomic factors has contributed to the growth and development of the wine market in Zambia.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.