Beer - Tajikistan

The Beer market in Tajikistan has been experiencing steady growth in recent years. Customer preferences have shifted towards consuming beer as a popular alcoholic beverage choice. This can be attributed to several trends in the market, as well as local special circumstances and underlying macroeconomic factors.

Customer preferences: Tajikistan has seen an increase in the consumption of beer due to changing customer preferences. Beer is now considered a trendy and fashionable choice among younger consumers. This shift can be attributed to the influence of Western culture and the increasing availability of international beer brands in the market. Additionally, the affordability and accessibility of beer compared to other alcoholic beverages have also contributed to its popularity.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the beer market in Tajikistan is the growing demand for craft beer. Consumers are increasingly seeking unique and high-quality beer options, which has led to the emergence of local craft breweries. These breweries offer a variety of flavors and styles, appealing to the discerning tastes of consumers. This trend mirrors the global craft beer movement, where consumers are moving away from mass-produced beers in favor of artisanal options. Another trend in the market is the rise of low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers. Health-conscious consumers are looking for alternatives to traditional alcoholic beverages, and low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers provide a suitable option. These products cater to individuals who want to enjoy the taste of beer without the effects of alcohol. This trend is also in line with the growing global trend towards healthier lifestyles.

Local special circumstances: Tajikistan's beer market is influenced by its cultural and religious norms. The majority of the population in Tajikistan follows Islam, which prohibits the consumption of alcohol. However, there is a significant non-Muslim population in the country, and this segment drives the demand for beer. The government has implemented regulations to control the sale and consumption of alcohol, but the market for beer remains relatively unrestricted.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The economic development and increasing disposable income in Tajikistan have contributed to the growth of the beer market. As the country's economy continues to improve, consumers have more purchasing power, allowing them to spend on discretionary items such as beer. Additionally, the tourism industry in Tajikistan has been growing, attracting visitors who contribute to the demand for beer. In conclusion, the beer market in Tajikistan is developing due to changing customer preferences, including a shift towards craft beer and the demand for low-alcohol and non-alcoholic options. Local special circumstances, such as cultural and religious norms, also influence the market. The underlying macroeconomic factors, including economic development and increasing disposable income, further support the growth of the beer market in Tajikistan.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.