Cruises - NAFTA | Statista Market Forecast

It is projected that the revenue in the Cruises market will reach US$26.11bn within NAFTA by 2024.
Further, it is expected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.39% from 2024 to 2029, resulting in a market volume projection of US$33.95bn by 2029.
By 2029, the number of users in the Cruises market is expected to amount to 23.05m users within NAFTA.
It is notable that the user penetration will increase from 3.60% in 2024 to 4.39% by 2029.
Additionally, the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to be US$1.42k.
Notably, 22% of the total revenue generated in the Cruises market within NAFTA is expected to come from online sales by 2029.
It is interesting to observe that in global comparison, United States is expected to generate the highest revenue of US$25bn within NAFTA by 2024.
The demand for luxury cruises in the United States, Canada, and Mexico under NAFTA has been steadily increasing despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

For further information on the data displayed, refer to the info button right next to each box.

Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in NAFTA continues to show promising growth and development.

Customer preferences: Cruise passengers in the NAFTA region are increasingly seeking unique and immersive experiences during their travels. They are drawn to cruises that offer a combination of relaxation, adventure, and cultural enrichment. Customers are also placing a high value on sustainability and eco-friendly practices within the cruise industry.

Trends in the market: In the United States, the largest cruise market in NAFTA, there is a growing demand for short cruises to nearby destinations such as the Caribbean and Mexico. This trend is driven by busy lifestyles and a desire for quick getaways. On the other hand, Canada is experiencing a rise in expedition cruises to the Arctic region, catering to adventurous travelers looking for remote and untouched destinations. Mexico, with its extensive coastline, is seeing an increase in domestic cruises catering to local passengers.

Local special circumstances: Each country in the NAFTA region has its own unique set of circumstances shaping the cruise market. In the United States, the presence of major cruise ports in Florida and California has solidified the country's position as a key player in the industry. Canada's cruise market is influenced by its stunning natural landscapes, leading to a focus on ecotourism and wildlife expeditions. Mexico's cruise market is heavily influenced by its vibrant culture and history, with cruise lines offering immersive experiences in Mexican ports.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The economic stability and disposable income levels in the NAFTA countries play a significant role in the growth of the cruise market. As the region continues to recover from the impact of the global pandemic, consumer confidence is increasing, leading to a rise in spending on leisure activities such as cruises. Additionally, favorable exchange rates and government policies supporting the tourism industry are contributing to the overall growth of the cruise market in NAFTA.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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