Cruises - Lithuania | Statista Market Forecast

By 2024, the revenue from Lithuania's Cruises market is projected to reach US$2.65m.
Moreover, the sector is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 4.88%, leading to a projected market volume of US$3.37m by 2029.
It is estimated that the number of users in the Cruises market will reach 3.13k users by 2029.
In 2024, the user penetration rate is 0.09%, which is expected to increase to 0.12% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to be US$1.06k.
Online sales will contribute 23% of the total revenue in the Cruises market by 2029.
It is worth noting that United States will generate the most revenue in the global comparison, amounting to US$25bn in 2024.
Lithuania's emerging cruise market is driven by the country's scenic coastal cities and its growing reputation as a Baltic Sea destination.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in Lithuania has been showing promising signs of growth and development in recent years.

Customer preferences: Lithuanian customers are increasingly showing interest in cruise vacations, seeking unique travel experiences and exploring new destinations. The convenience of an all-inclusive cruise package, which includes accommodation, meals, and entertainment, appeals to customers looking for hassle-free travel options. Additionally, the growing trend of experiential travel and the desire for personalized and immersive experiences contribute to the rising popularity of cruises among Lithuanian travelers.

Trends in the market: One significant trend in the Lithuanian Cruises market is the increasing demand for cruises to Northern European destinations. Customers are attracted to cruises that offer visits to picturesque Scandinavian countries and the Baltic region, showcasing a mix of cultural experiences and natural beauty. Moreover, themed cruises focusing on specific interests such as gastronomy, wellness, or adventure activities are gaining traction among Lithuanian travelers seeking niche experiences during their vacations.

Local special circumstances: Lithuania's geographical location along the Baltic Sea plays a crucial role in shaping the Cruises market in the country. The presence of ports like Klaipėda enables easy access to popular cruise routes in the Baltic region, making it a convenient starting point for cruise itineraries. The country's rich maritime history and heritage also contribute to the appeal of cruises among local customers, fostering a sense of connection to the sea and exploration.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The improving economic conditions in Lithuania, coupled with rising disposable incomes among the population, have fueled the growth of the Cruises market. As more Lithuanians have the financial means to afford leisure travel, the demand for cruise vacations is expected to continue growing. Additionally, the development of tourism infrastructure and services in the country supports the expansion of the cruise industry, offering a seamless experience for travelers from booking to disembarkation.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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