Cruises - LATAM | Statista Market Forecast

Revenue in the Cruises market is projected to reach US$1.05bn in 2024.
Revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 4.43%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$1.30bn by 2029.
In the Cruises market, the number of users is expected to amount to 2.25m users by 2029.
User penetration is projected to be 0.25% in 2024 and 0.34% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to amount to US$662.10.
In the Cruises market, 24% of total revenue will be generated through online sales by 2029.
In global comparison, most revenue will be generated United States (US$25bn in 2024).

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in LATAM has been experiencing significant growth and development in recent years.

Customer preferences: Travelers in LATAM are increasingly drawn to cruise vacations due to the convenience of visiting multiple destinations in one trip, the variety of onboard activities and entertainment, as well as the all-inclusive nature of cruise packages.

Trends in the market: In Brazil, the largest cruise market in LATAM, there has been a notable increase in the number of domestic cruises catering to local passengers. This trend can be attributed to the growing middle-class population with disposable income seeking affordable travel options within the region.

Local special circumstances: Countries like Mexico and Colombia are emerging as key players in the LATAM Cruises market, with their picturesque coastal regions and cultural attractions attracting both domestic and international cruisers. Additionally, the expansion of port infrastructure in these countries has made them more accessible to cruise lines, further driving market growth.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The improving economic conditions in LATAM countries have led to a rise in consumer spending on leisure activities, including cruise vacations. As disposable incomes increase and travel becomes more affordable, more people are opting for cruises as a convenient and enjoyable way to explore different destinations. Additionally, favorable exchange rates in some countries have made cruise travel more attractive to international tourists, boosting the overall market demand.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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