Cruises - Japan | Statista Market Forecast

By 2024, the projected revenue in the Cruises market of Japan is estimated to reach US$242.70m.
The revenue is predicted to exhibit an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 9.79%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$387.20m by 2029.
Additionally, the number of users in the Cruises market is expected to amount to 215.20k users by 2029.
In 2024, the user penetration rate is 0.15%, which is expected to increase to 0.18% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is predicted to reach US$1.28k.
It is anticipated that 30% of the total revenue in the Cruises market will be generated through online sales by 2029.
Furthermore, in comparison to other countries globally, United States is expected to generate the most revenue in the Cruises market, with a projected revenue of US$25bn in 2024.
Cruising in Japan offers a unique combination of traditional culture and modern luxury, attracting a growing number of affluent travelers.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in Japan is experiencing a steady growth trajectory, driven by various factors influencing consumer behavior and market dynamics.

Customer preferences: Japanese consumers are increasingly seeking unique and culturally immersive travel experiences, which has led to a growing interest in cruise vacations. The desire for convenience and all-inclusive travel packages is also fueling the demand for cruises among Japanese travelers.

Trends in the market: One notable trend in the Japanese cruise market is the rise of domestic cruises, with more cruise lines offering itineraries that explore the scenic coastlines and cultural landmarks of Japan. This shift towards domestic cruises is appealing to local travelers looking to explore their own country in a new and convenient way.

Local special circumstances: Japan's geographical location surrounded by water makes it an ideal hub for cruise travel, with numerous ports of call along its coastline. The country's rich history, vibrant culture, and stunning natural landscapes also make it an attractive destination for both domestic and international cruise travelers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The steady growth of Japan's economy and increasing disposable income among Japanese consumers have contributed to the expansion of the cruise market in the country. As more cruise lines tailor their offerings to cater to the preferences of Japanese travelers, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in the coming years.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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