Cruises - China | Statista Market Forecast

By 2024, the revenue for the Cruises market in China is projected to reach US$1.28bn.
The revenue is expected to increase at an annual growth rate of 7.55% (CAGR 2024-2029), resulting in a projected market volume of US$1.84bn by 2029.
It is expected that the number of users in this market will reach 3.46m users by 2029.
In 2024, the user penetration rate is estimated to be 0.11% and this is expected to increase to 0.24% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to be US$843.00.
By 2029, it is expected that 30% of the total revenue in this market will be generated through online sales.
It is noteworthy that, in global comparison, the majority of the revenue will be generated United States (US$25bn in 2024).
China's growing middle class is fueling a rise in demand for luxury cruises, with many companies now offering tailored experiences to meet their needs.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in China has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, with a surge in demand for cruise travel among Chinese consumers.

Customer preferences: Chinese consumers are increasingly seeking unique travel experiences, and cruises offer a convenient way to visit multiple destinations in one trip. The growing middle class in China has more disposable income to spend on leisure activities, contributing to the rising popularity of cruises among Chinese travelers.

Trends in the market: One notable trend in the Chinese cruise market is the expansion of cruise lines and routes catering specifically to Chinese passengers. Many international cruise companies have customized their services to suit Chinese preferences, such as offering Chinese cuisine options and onboard activities that resonate with Chinese culture. This localization strategy has helped attract more Chinese customers to the cruise market.

Local special circumstances: China's vast coastline and strategic port locations have made it an attractive destination for cruise operators looking to tap into the growing Chinese market. Major cities like Shanghai and Tianjin serve as key embarkation points for cruises, providing convenient access for Chinese travelers. Additionally, the Chinese government has been investing in infrastructure to support the growth of the cruise industry, such as developing new cruise terminals and improving port facilities.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The overall growth of the Chinese economy has fueled the expansion of the cruise market, as more Chinese consumers are able to afford luxury travel experiences like cruises. Additionally, the rise of online booking platforms and travel agencies in China has made it easier for consumers to research and book cruise vacations, further driving demand in the market. As disposable incomes continue to rise and travel becomes more accessible to the Chinese population, the cruise market in China is expected to continue its upward trajectory.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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