Commodities

The nominal value in the Commodities market is projected to reach US$1.67tn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 1.99% resulting in a projected total amount of US$1.84tn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Commodities market amounts to US$0.61 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached United States (US$53.69tn in 2024).
In the Commodities market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 2.83m by 2029.

Definition:

The commodities market refers to derivatives of commodities. These include financial vehicles such as options and futures. Derivatives allow investors to profit from a commodity’s value development without owning the physical commodity (e.g. instead of owning a unit of Gold, an investor could own a derivative of Gold). Therefore, physical commodities are out of scope in this analysis.

Structure:

The commodities market comprises derivatives of precious metals, industrial metals, energy products, agricultural products & the Emission Trade System. The segments of precious metals, industrial metals, energy products, and agricultural products are also providing price data of popular specific derivatives. The segment data of the Emission Trade System (ETS) is only provided for countries where an ETS is in place (therefore the number of countries where data is shown is reduced in comparison to other segments).

Additional information:

The market contains the following KPIs: annual notional value, the number of traded contracts, the open interest (number of outstanding contracts at the end of a year) as well as the average notional value per contract. Furthermore, the share of futures and options is provided for these KPIs to display even more insights into this market.

Options & Futures
Precious Metal Derivatives
Industry Metal Derivatives
Energy Product Derivatives
Agricultural Product Derivatives
Emission Trading System

Physical commodities
Other Derivative types
other Commodity Types

The Commodities market in South Africa is experiencing a significant shift in investor behavior and market dynamics.

Customer preferences: Investors in South Africa are increasingly showing a preference for investing in commodities as a way to diversify their portfolios and hedge against market volatility. This trend is driven by the potential for high returns and the opportunity to spread risk across different asset classes.

Trends in the market: One notable trend in the South African Commodities market is the growing popularity of commodity derivatives trading. Investors are turning to derivatives such as futures and options to speculate on commodity prices without owning the physical assets. This trend is fueled by the ease of trading, leverage opportunities, and the ability to profit from both rising and falling prices.

Local special circumstances: South Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including gold, platinum, and diamonds, plays a significant role in shaping the country's Commodities market. The mining industry, which is a key driver of the economy, influences commodity prices and trading activities in the market. Additionally, the country's strategic location as a gateway to African markets further enhances its position in the global commodities trade.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The performance of the South African Commodities market is closely tied to global economic conditions and commodity prices. Factors such as exchange rates, inflation, and geopolitical events impact the prices of commodities traded in the market. Moreover, government policies, regulatory frameworks, and infrastructure development play a crucial role in shaping the overall growth and stability of the Commodities market in South Africa.

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Financial market, in a PDF format.