Agricultural Product Derivatives - Armenia

Armenia

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach US$7.72bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.86% resulting in a projected total amount of US$8.89bn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to US$0.08 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (US$12,320.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 100.90k by 2029.

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Analyst Opinion

Armenia, a country known for its rich agricultural heritage and diverse landscape, has seen significant developments in its Agricultural Product Derivatives market.

Customer preferences: Armenian customers have shown a growing interest in Agricultural Product Derivatives as a way to hedge against price volatility in the agricultural sector. This trend is in line with global market behavior, where investors seek to diversify their portfolios and manage risk through derivative instruments.

Trends in the market: In Armenia, the Agricultural Product Derivatives market has been witnessing a steady increase in trading activity. Market participants are increasingly using derivatives to speculate on the future price movements of agricultural products such as wheat, barley, and corn. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including the growing sophistication of market participants and the increasing awareness of the benefits of using derivatives for risk management.

Local special circumstances: Armenia's agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the country's economy, accounting for a significant portion of its GDP. As a result, developments in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market have a direct impact on the overall economic stability of the country. The government has also been supportive of the development of the derivatives market, recognizing its importance in ensuring price stability and promoting investment in the agricultural sector.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Armenia is also influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, such as inflation rates, interest rates, and exchange rate movements. As the country continues to integrate into the global economy, these factors play a significant role in shaping the demand for agricultural derivatives. Additionally, regulatory reforms and advancements in technology have contributed to the overall growth and sophistication of the derivatives market in Armenia.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.