Grocery Delivery - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast

The Grocery Delivery market worldwide is set to achieve a staggering revenue of US$770.90bn by the year 2024.
Furthermore, this market is expected to display a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.82% between 2024 and 2029, resulting in a projected market volume of US$1.35tn by 2029.
Among the various segments within this market, Retail Delivery emerges as the largest, with a projected market volume of US$586.80bn in 2024.
In a global context, it is worth noting that China is anticipated to generate the highest revenue, amounting to US$266.00bn in the same year.
When considering the average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market, it is forecasted to reach US$495.50 in 2024.
Moreover, the number of users within this market is expected to reach 2.2bn users by the year 2029.
In terms of user penetration, it is estimated to stand at 20.1% in 2024.
In the United States, the demand for grocery delivery has skyrocketed as consumers prioritize convenience and safety amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The demand for online grocery delivery has been steadily increasing worldwide in recent years.

Customer preferences: Customers have been increasingly looking for convenient and time-saving options for grocery shopping. Online grocery delivery provides a solution to this problem by allowing customers to shop from the comfort of their homes and have their groceries delivered to their doorstep. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards online shopping, as customers look for safer ways to purchase their groceries.

Trends in the market: The online grocery delivery market has been growing rapidly in many countries around the world. In the United States, for example, online grocery sales increased by over 50% in 2020 compared to the previous year. Similarly, in Europe, the online grocery market is projected to grow by over 20% annually over the next few years. This growth is being driven by the increasing availability of online grocery delivery services and the convenience they offer.

Local special circumstances: In Asia, the online grocery market is particularly strong, with countries like China and South Korea leading the way. In China, for example, online grocery sales are projected to reach over $200 billion by 2025. This is due in part to the high urbanization rates in these countries, which make it more difficult for customers to access physical grocery stores. Additionally, in some countries, such as India, traditional grocery stores still dominate the market, but online grocery delivery is becoming increasingly popular among younger, tech-savvy customers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the online grocery delivery market is also being driven by underlying macroeconomic factors. For example, the increasing use of smartphones and other mobile devices has made it easier for customers to shop online. Additionally, the rise of e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Alibaba has made it easier for customers to find and purchase groceries online. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift towards online shopping, as customers look for safer ways to purchase their groceries. Overall, the online grocery delivery market is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, as more customers look for convenient and time-saving options for grocery shopping.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. All monetary figures refer to consumer spending on digital goods or subscriptions in the respective market. Gross merchandise value is calculated prior to the deduction of any fees or expenses..

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies and industry associations, third-party studies and reports, survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Consumer Insights Global survey), data on shopping behavior (e.g., Google Trends, Alibaba Trends), as well as performance factors (e.g., user penetration, price per product, usage). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, number of internet users, and internet consumption. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing are well suited for forecasting digital products and services due to the non-linear growth of technology adoption. The main drivers are GDP per capita, consumer spending per capita, and internet penetration.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. The market is updated twice a year. In some cases, the data is updated on an ad hoc basis (e.g., when new, relevant data has been released or significant changes within the market have an impact on the projected development). Data from the Statista Consumer Insights Global survey is reweighted for representativeness.

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