Timor-Leste, a Southeast Asian country, has a developing retail delivery market.
Customer preferences: As in many emerging economies, Timor-Leste's population is young, with a median age of 19.7 years. This demographic is tech-savvy and prefers online shopping to traditional brick-and-mortar retail. Due to the limited availability of physical stores in many parts of the country, online shopping is also more convenient for consumers. Additionally, the country's low purchasing power means that consumers are price-sensitive and look for affordable products.
Trends in the market: The retail delivery market in Timor-Leste is still in its early stages of development. However, there has been a recent surge in online shopping platforms and delivery services. These services range from small, local businesses to larger, international companies. The COVID-19 pandemic has also accelerated the growth of e-commerce, as consumers have turned to online shopping due to social distancing measures. Retailers have responded by offering more online shopping options and improving their delivery services.
Local special circumstances: Timor-Leste's geography and infrastructure present unique challenges for the retail delivery market. The country's rugged terrain and lack of roads make it difficult to transport goods, particularly to more remote areas. Additionally, the country's limited internet connectivity and low digital literacy rates pose challenges for e-commerce businesses. However, the government has made efforts to improve the country's infrastructure and digital connectivity, which could lead to further growth in the retail delivery market.
Underlying macroeconomic factors: Timor-Leste's economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of government revenue. However, the country's economy has been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and falling oil prices. This has led to job losses and reduced consumer spending power. Despite these challenges, the government has prioritized economic diversification and is investing in non-oil sectors such as agriculture and tourism. These efforts could lead to increased consumer spending and further growth in the retail delivery market.
Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.Modeling approach / Market size:
Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.Additional notes:
The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.
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