Quick Commerce - Kenya

Kenya

Highlights

The Quick Commerce market in Kenya is projected to reach a revenue of Ksh US$30.44m in 2024.
This is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 18.02%, resulting in a projected market volume of Ksh US$69.68m by 2029.
In Kenya's Quick Commerce market, the number of users is expected to amount to 4.4m users by 2029.
The user penetration will be 3.7% in 2024 and is expected to hit 7.2% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to be Ksh US$14.58.
In global comparison, China is expected to generate the most revenue in the Quick Commerce market with a projected amount of Ksh US$80.84bn in 2024.
Additionally, China has the highest user penetration rate in the Quick Commerce market, projected at 21.4%.
Kenya's Quick Commerce market is experiencing exponential growth, driven by the increasing demand for convenient and efficient delivery services in urban areas.

Market definitionIn-Scope/Out-of-scopeMarket structureReportsMethodology

The Quick Commerce market in Kenya has been rapidly developing in recent years, driven by a combination of changing consumer preferences and local special circumstances.

Customer preferences: Kenyan consumers are increasingly looking for convenient and efficient ways to shop for their everyday needs. Quick Commerce companies have responded to this demand by offering fast delivery times and a wide range of products, including groceries, household items, and electronics. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of e-commerce in Kenya, as consumers seek to avoid crowded stores and minimize their exposure to the virus.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Quick Commerce market in Kenya is the rise of local players. While international companies like Jumia and Glovo have a presence in the country, they face stiff competition from local companies like Copia, Twiga Foods, and Sendy. These companies have a better understanding of the local market and are able to tailor their offerings to meet the specific needs of Kenyan consumers.Another trend in the market is the expansion of Quick Commerce services beyond urban areas. While Nairobi and other major cities have been the primary focus of Quick Commerce companies in Kenya, there is a growing demand for these services in rural areas as well. This presents a significant opportunity for companies that are able to overcome the logistical challenges of delivering to remote locations.

Local special circumstances: One of the unique challenges of the Quick Commerce market in Kenya is the country's underdeveloped logistics infrastructure. Poor road networks, limited access to electricity, and a lack of reliable data on consumer behavior all make it more difficult for companies to operate in the country. However, these challenges have also created opportunities for innovation, as companies develop new ways to reach customers and deliver products.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Kenya's growing middle class and increasing smartphone penetration are two key macroeconomic factors driving the development of the Quick Commerce market in the country. As more Kenyans gain access to smartphones and the internet, they are becoming more comfortable with online shopping and are demanding faster and more convenient delivery options. Additionally, the government's focus on improving infrastructure and expanding access to electricity is helping to create an environment that is more conducive to e-commerce and Quick Commerce.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.