Grocery Delivery - Kenya | Statista Market Forecast

The Grocery Delivery market in Kenya is expected to reach a revenue of US$64.33m in 2024.
It is projected to experience an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 9.99%, resulting in a market volume of US$103.50m by 2029.
The Retail Delivery market in Kenya is projected to have a market volume of US$33.90m in 2024.
When compared globally, China is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Grocery Delivery market, reaching US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market in Kenya is projected to be US$7.70 in 2024.
By 2029, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market in Kenya is expected to reach 13.7m users.
The user penetration rate in the Grocery Delivery market in Kenya is expected to be 14.9% in 2024.
The grocery delivery market in Kenya is witnessing a surge in demand due to the convenience and safety it offers amidst the ongoing pandemic.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

Kenya, a country located in East Africa, has seen a significant surge in the Grocery Delivery market in recent years.

Customer preferences: The customers in Kenya are rapidly adopting online grocery shopping and delivery services due to the convenience they offer. Customers can easily order groceries from the comfort of their homes and have them delivered to their doorstep, saving them time and money. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the growth of the online grocery market, as customers prefer to avoid crowded supermarkets and reduce their exposure to the virus.

Trends in the market: The Grocery Delivery market in Kenya is witnessing an increase in the number of players entering the market, leading to intense competition. The competition is driving innovation, with companies introducing new features such as same-day delivery, cashless payment options, and loyalty programs to attract and retain customers. Moreover, the market is witnessing a shift towards the use of mobile applications, with customers preferring to order groceries through their smartphones.

Local special circumstances: Kenya has a relatively young population, with over 60% of the population aged below 25 years. This young demographic is tech-savvy and comfortable using digital platforms, making them more likely to adopt online grocery shopping and delivery services. Additionally, the country has a growing middle class, which is increasingly time-conscious and values convenience, making them a significant target market for online grocery retailers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Kenya's economy has been growing steadily over the past few years, with a GDP growth rate of 5.7% in 2019. The growth has resulted in increased disposable income for consumers, which has led to increased spending on groceries. Additionally, the country has seen significant investments in its digital infrastructure, such as the expansion of mobile networks and the adoption of mobile money services, making it easier and more affordable for customers to order groceries online.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Ecommerce market, in a PDF format.