Grocery Delivery - Papua New Guinea

The projected revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in Papua New Guinea is expected to reach US$94.69m in 2024.
It is anticipated that the revenue will demonstrate an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of -2.74%, leading to a projected market volume of US$82.41m by 2029.
Comparatively, the Retail Delivery market is projected to have a market volume of US$94.69m in 2024.
When compared globally, China is expected to generate the highest revenue of US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be US$105.00 in 2024.
Additionally, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 1.5m users by 2029.
The user penetration in the Grocery Delivery market is estimated to be 8.6% in 2024.
Despite its remote and challenging geography, the demand for grocery delivery services in Papua New Guinea is steadily increasing due to the convenience and accessibility it offers to consumers.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

Papua New Guinea, a country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean, has a unique market for grocery delivery services.

Customer preferences: The population of Papua New Guinea is primarily rural, with only around 13% of the population living in urban areas. As a result, traditional brick-and-mortar grocery stores are not always easily accessible to the majority of the population. Additionally, many people in Papua New Guinea rely on subsistence farming and fishing, which means that they may not have the same demand for grocery delivery services as consumers in more developed markets.

Trends in the market: Despite the challenges posed by the country's geography and demographics, the grocery delivery market in Papua New Guinea is slowly developing. Some companies have started offering delivery services in urban areas, where there is more demand for convenience. However, the market is still relatively small and fragmented, with many small-scale operators providing delivery services on a local basis.

Local special circumstances: One unique aspect of the grocery delivery market in Papua New Guinea is the prevalence of mobile payment systems. Many consumers in the country do not have access to traditional banking services, but they do have access to mobile phones. As a result, mobile payment systems have become a popular way for consumers to pay for goods and services, including groceries.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Papua New Guinea is a developing country with a relatively low GDP per capita. This means that there may be limited demand for premium grocery delivery services, and that many consumers may be more price-sensitive than consumers in more developed markets. Additionally, the country's rugged terrain and limited infrastructure can make it difficult and expensive to transport goods, which may limit the growth of the grocery delivery market.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

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