Grocery Delivery - Nigeria | Statista Market Forecast

In 2024, the projected revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in Nigeria is estimated to reach US$816.80m.
It is expected to experience an annual growth rate of 18.23% (CAGR 2024-2029), resulting in a projected market volume of US$1.89bn by 2029.
The Retail Delivery market in Nigeria is projected to have a market volume of US$416.30m in 2024.
When compared globally, China is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Grocery Delivery market, amounting to US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market in Nigeria is projected to be US$25.93 in 2024.
By 2029, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market in Nigeria is expected to reach 50.7m users.
The user penetration in the Grocery Delivery market in Nigeria is estimated to be 13.8% in 2024.
In Nigeria, the grocery delivery market is experiencing rapid growth due to the increasing demand for convenience and the rise of e-commerce platforms.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The demand for online grocery delivery services in Nigeria has seen significant growth over the past few years.

Customer preferences: Nigerian consumers are increasingly turning to online grocery delivery services due to the convenience and time-saving benefits they offer. With the rise of e-commerce platforms and the increasing adoption of smartphones, consumers are now able to order groceries from the comfort of their homes and have them delivered to their doorstep. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the growth of the online grocery delivery market as consumers have become more cautious about visiting physical stores.

Trends in the market: The online grocery delivery market in Nigeria is highly competitive with a number of players offering similar services. However, there has been a recent trend towards the emergence of niche players that focus on specific product categories such as fresh produce or organic products. These niche players are able to differentiate themselves from the competition by offering unique products and services that cater to specific customer needs.

Local special circumstances: One of the unique challenges facing the online grocery delivery market in Nigeria is the lack of infrastructure and logistics support. The country's poor road network and inadequate transportation systems make it difficult for delivery companies to efficiently deliver products to customers. Additionally, the high cost of fuel and electricity also adds to the operational costs of these companies.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The Nigerian economy has been experiencing a period of slow growth over the past few years. This has led to a decline in consumer purchasing power and a shift towards more cost-effective purchasing habits. As a result, consumers are increasingly turning to online grocery delivery services as a way to save money and reduce their overall grocery bill. Additionally, the country's large and growing population presents a significant market opportunity for online grocery delivery companies.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Ecommerce market, in a PDF format.