Grocery Delivery - ASEAN | Statista Market Forecast

The revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in ASEAN is projected to reach US$23.68bn by 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 15.98%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$49.70bn by 2029.
In comparison, the Retail Delivery market is projected to have a market volume of US$18.89bn in 2024.
Among in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, China is expected to generate the highest revenue, with US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be US$189.90 in 2024.
Additionally, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 175.8m users by 2029.
The user penetration in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be 18.0% in 2024.
In ASEAN, the grocery delivery market is rapidly growing, driven by the convenience-seeking urban population in countries like Singapore and Thailand.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The demand for grocery delivery services in ASEAN has witnessed a significant surge in recent years.

Customer preferences: The rise of e-commerce and digitalization has led to a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping and home delivery services. Consumers today are increasingly looking for convenience, speed, and flexibility in their shopping experience. Grocery delivery services offer a hassle-free, time-saving, and contactless shopping experience, which has become particularly relevant during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trends in the market: In ASEAN, the grocery delivery market is dominated by a few major players such as Grab, Gojek, and Shopee. These platforms have been expanding their services and investing in logistics infrastructure to cater to the growing demand. The trend towards online grocery shopping is particularly strong in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. In Indonesia, the online grocery market is expected to reach $18 billion by 2023, driven by the country's large population and increasing internet penetration. In Thailand, the grocery delivery market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.4% during the forecast period 2020-2025, driven by the rise of e-commerce and increasing demand for convenience. In Vietnam, the online grocery market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 68.8% during the forecast period 2020-2025, driven by the increasing adoption of smartphones and rising disposable income.

Local special circumstances: Despite the overall growth in the grocery delivery market, there are also some challenges and local special circumstances that need to be considered. For example, in some ASEAN countries, there are still significant barriers to e-commerce and online payments due to low internet penetration and lack of trust in digital transactions. In addition, the grocery delivery market is highly competitive, with many players entering the market and offering similar services. This has led to price wars and pressure on profit margins for the companies involved.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The underlying macroeconomic factors that are driving the growth of the grocery delivery market in ASEAN include increasing urbanization, rising disposable income, and changing consumer behavior. As more people move to cities and adopt a busy lifestyle, they are looking for more convenient ways to shop for groceries. Rising disposable income also means that consumers are willing to pay more for convenience and quality. Finally, changing consumer behavior towards online shopping and home delivery is a global trend that is also affecting the ASEAN region. In conclusion, the grocery delivery market in ASEAN is witnessing a significant surge in demand, driven by changing consumer behavior, increasing urbanization, and rising disposable income. While there are challenges and local special circumstances that need to be considered, the overall trend towards online grocery shopping is expected to continue in the coming years.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

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