Market Insights Digital Online Food Delivery

Grocery Delivery - Pakistan

Pakistan

The projected Revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in Pakistan is estimated to reach US$245.90m in 2024.
This projection indicates an expected annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 17.07%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$461.90m by 2028.
In Pakistan, the Retail Delivery market is projected to have a market volume of US$172.80m in 2024.
When compared globally, the highest revenue is expected to be generated in China, with US$266,000.00m in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market in Pakistan is projected to amount to US$21.48 in 2024.
Additionally, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 16.8m users by 2028.
The user penetration in the Grocery Delivery market is anticipated to be at 4.8% in 2024.
The demand for online grocery delivery services in Pakistan has surged due to the convenience and safety it offers amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Analyst Opinion

Driven by COVID-19 lockdowns, Online Grocery Delivery demand increased rapidly with many new start-ups and established retailers fighting to respond, signaling a landmark year in 2021. Traditional grocery retailers quickly set up logistics, warehouses, and online sales channels for customers to be able to conveniently purchase their daily needs and have them delivered to their doorstep. This growth will slow down in 2022 due to the uncertain macroeconomic environment causing consumers to be more price-conscious and cut out discretionary spending.

Traditional retailers have remained the full basket-offerings option for both online and offline. Players such as Walmart, REWE, Ocado, and Tesco have a large assortment with same-day, scheduled delivery. Consumers are turning to Meal Kits as a replacement for these offerings. Quick Commerce is replacing the convenience stores concept with smaller product offerings, focused on top-up and confectionery items.

China is by far the leader of the Online Grocery Delivery market due to the mature Online Food Delivery market with the most established companies using existing logistics systems and a strong customer base to enhance their product offerings. For example, Meituan has a well-established logistics operation to be able to deliver groceries in under 20 minutes.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.