Online Food Delivery

The Online Food Delivery market in the Baltics is projected to reach a revenue of US$428.20m in 2024.
With an expected annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 9.56%, the market is predicted to reach a volume of US$616.90m by 2028.
In the Grocery Delivery market, there is an anticipated revenue growth of 13.9% in 2025.0.
The projected market volume for Grocery Delivery in the Baltics is US$330.20m in 2024.
When compared globally, China is expected to generate the highest revenue, reaching US$448.90bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be US$265.60 in 2024.
In the Meal Delivery market, the number of users is expected to reach 2.0m users by 2028.
The user penetration rate in the Meal Delivery market is estimated to be 14.5% in 2024.
In the Baltics, online food delivery services have experienced a surge in popularity, with local consumers embracing the convenience and wide variety of options available at their fingertips.

Definition:

Online Food Delivery refers to the intersection of ordering groceries and prepared meals online. Orders are typically placed through an app or website and delivery times vary.

Structure:

The Online Food Delivery market contains the user and revenue development of two different delivery service solutions: (1) Meal Delivery and (2) Grocery Delivery. Included are services that deliver prepared meals and food ordered online for direct consumption (Meal Delivery) and non-prepared food and beverage products, household, and personal care products (Grocery Delivery). Meal delivery includes the delivery of meals carried out directly by restaurants (Restaurant Delivery) and online delivery services that provide customers with meals from partner restaurants that do not necessarily have to offer food delivery themselves (Platform Delivery). Grocery Delivery consists of fresh, nonprepared products delivered from supermarkets or retailers where delivery is scheduled (Retail Delivery), Delivery that is under 3 hours and operates dark stores or own warehouses (Quick Commerce), and prepared fresh ingredients to be prepared at home, typically offered through a subscription service (Meal Kit Delivery).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures are the gross merchandise value (GMV), defined as the total sales dollar value for merchandise/food sold through the Online Food Delivery marketplace. User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Meals and groceries ordered online that are directly delivered by the restaurant, retailer, or platform no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g. Delivery Hero, Instacart) or a restaurant/retailer website (e.g. Domino's, Walmart.com)
Online meal and grocery order and delivery both carried out by a platform (e.g. Deliveroo, Grab, Flink)

Phone orders
Click & collect Grocery orders
Ready-to-eat meals

The Online Food Delivery Market is a combination of Grocery Delivery and Meal Delivery. The market gained a great deal of traction from the COVID-19 Pandemic. The growth can be seen in almost every market. Now that food aggregators like Just Eat Takeaway and Delivery Hero have established themselves, they are now venturing into the Grocery Delivery space. While acquisitions are nothing new in the Meal Delivery space, these aggregators are taking big risks as Quick Commerce has yet to prove profitable.

Although the market saw two years of unprecedented growth, 2022 is looking to slow that down with uncertain macroeconomic conditions and consumers looking to save money. Consolidation of the key players will likely happen which will further expand the gray area between Grocery and Meal Delivery.

China and the US lead in terms of Gross Merchandising Value (GMV). Chinese companies are well-established and the market is mature. U.S. consumers enjoy discretionary spending and that does not look to be slowing down anytime soon.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Digital market, in a PDF format.