Wine - Nigeria

The Wine market in Nigeria has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, driven by changing consumer preferences and a growing middle class.

Customer preferences: Nigerian consumers have traditionally favored beer and spirits over wine, but there has been a shift in preferences towards wine in recent years. This can be attributed to several factors, including increased exposure to international cuisine and a growing interest in wine culture. As Nigerians become more adventurous in their culinary choices, they are also becoming more open to trying different types of wine.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Nigerian wine market is the increasing demand for imported wines. Nigerian consumers are willing to pay a premium for imported wines, as they are seen as a mark of quality and sophistication. This trend is driven by the perception that imported wines are of higher quality than locally produced ones. As a result, there has been a surge in the number of wine importers and distributors in Nigeria, catering to the growing demand for imported wines. Another trend in the Nigerian wine market is the rise of domestic wine production. Local wineries are starting to gain recognition for their quality wines, and consumers are becoming more willing to try locally produced wines. This trend is driven by a desire to support local businesses and promote Nigerian products. Domestic wine production is also benefiting from government initiatives to promote agriculture and local industries.

Local special circumstances: One of the unique characteristics of the Nigerian wine market is the dominance of red wine. Red wine is the preferred choice for many Nigerian consumers, as it is believed to have health benefits and is often associated with celebrations and special occasions. This preference for red wine has led to an increase in the production and importation of red wine varieties in Nigeria. Another special circumstance in the Nigerian wine market is the influence of cultural and religious factors. Nigeria has a large Muslim population, and as a result, there is a demand for halal-certified wines. This has led to the development of a niche market for halal wines in Nigeria, catering to the needs of Muslim consumers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The growth of the wine market in Nigeria is also influenced by underlying macroeconomic factors. Nigeria has experienced steady economic growth in recent years, resulting in an expanding middle class with higher disposable incomes. This has led to an increase in consumer spending on luxury goods, including wine. Additionally, the Nigerian government has implemented policies to attract foreign investment and promote economic diversification, which has created a favorable business environment for wine importers and distributors. In conclusion, the Wine market in Nigeria is developing due to changing consumer preferences, including a growing interest in wine culture and a desire to try different types of wine. The market is also driven by the increasing demand for imported wines, as well as the rise of domestic wine production. Special circumstances in the Nigerian wine market include the preference for red wine and the demand for halal-certified wines. Underlying macroeconomic factors, such as economic growth and government policies, are also contributing to the development of the wine market in Nigeria.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.