Spirits - Russia

The Spirits market in Russia has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, driven by changing customer preferences, emerging trends, and local special circumstances. Customer preferences in the Russian Spirits market have been shifting towards premium and craft spirits. Consumers are increasingly seeking high-quality and unique products, and are willing to pay a premium for them. This trend is driven by a growing middle class with higher disposable income, who are looking for more sophisticated and exclusive drinking experiences. Additionally, there is a growing interest in locally produced spirits, as consumers value the authenticity and craftsmanship associated with these products. One of the key trends in the Russian Spirits market is the rise of vodka alternatives. Traditionally, vodka has been the most popular spirit in Russia, but in recent years, there has been a shift towards other types of spirits such as whisky, rum, and gin. This trend is driven by a desire for more diverse and complex flavors, as well as the influence of global drinking trends. As a result, international spirits brands are gaining popularity in the Russian market, offering consumers a wider range of options to choose from. Another trend in the Russian Spirits market is the growing popularity of ready-to-drink (RTD) cocktails. RTD cocktails offer convenience and ease of consumption, making them appealing to busy urban consumers. This trend is also driven by the increasing number of bars and restaurants offering pre-mixed cocktails, as well as the growing popularity of home entertaining. As a result, both domestic and international spirits brands are launching new RTD cocktail products to cater to this demand. Local special circumstances in Russia also play a role in shaping the Spirits market. The country has a long-standing tradition of spirits consumption, with vodka being deeply ingrained in Russian culture. This cultural heritage has created a strong demand for spirits, and has also influenced the preferences and drinking habits of consumers. Additionally, the Russian government has implemented various regulations and policies to control the production, distribution, and consumption of spirits, which can impact the market dynamics. Underlying macroeconomic factors also contribute to the development of the Spirits market in Russia. The country has experienced periods of economic growth, which has resulted in an increase in disposable income and consumer spending power. This has allowed consumers to trade up to premium spirits and explore new products. However, the Russian economy is also subject to fluctuations, which can impact consumer confidence and purchasing power. Therefore, it is important for spirits companies to monitor and adapt to these macroeconomic conditions in order to succeed in the Russian market.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.