Beer - Ethiopia

The Beer market in Ethiopia has been experiencing significant growth in recent years, driven by changing customer preferences, emerging trends, and local special circumstances.

Customer preferences: Ethiopia has a long-standing tradition of beer consumption, with beer being a popular choice among consumers. However, in recent years, there has been a shift in customer preferences towards premium and craft beers. This can be attributed to the rising disposable income and changing lifestyles of the Ethiopian population. Consumers are now seeking higher quality and more diverse beer options, leading to an increased demand for premium and craft beers.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Ethiopian beer market is the growing popularity of craft beers. Craft breweries have been emerging across the country, offering unique and flavorful beer options to consumers. This trend is driven by the desire for more specialized and artisanal products, as well as the increasing interest in supporting local businesses. Craft beers are often seen as a symbol of quality and authenticity, appealing to a niche market of beer enthusiasts. Another trend in the Ethiopian beer market is the growing demand for low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers. This can be attributed to the increasing health consciousness among consumers, as well as the desire for more inclusive social experiences. Non-alcoholic beers provide an alternative for those who want to enjoy the taste of beer without the effects of alcohol. This trend is also influenced by cultural and religious factors, as Ethiopia has a significant Muslim population that abstains from alcohol.

Local special circumstances: Ethiopia has a unique brewing tradition that sets it apart from other countries. The country is known for its traditional beer, called "tej," which is made from honey and is often consumed during cultural and religious celebrations. Tej has a strong cultural significance in Ethiopia and continues to be a popular choice among locals. This special circumstance adds to the diversity of the Ethiopian beer market and provides opportunities for both traditional and innovative beer producers.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The Ethiopian economy has been experiencing steady economic growth in recent years, which has contributed to the growth of the beer market. Rising disposable incomes and a growing middle class have led to an increase in consumer spending, including on alcoholic beverages. Additionally, urbanization and the expansion of the tourism industry have created a larger consumer base for the beer market. These macroeconomic factors provide a favorable environment for the development and expansion of the beer industry in Ethiopia. In conclusion, the Beer market in Ethiopia is experiencing growth due to changing customer preferences, emerging trends such as the popularity of craft beers and low-alcohol/non-alcoholic beers, local special circumstances such as the traditional tej brewing tradition, and underlying macroeconomic factors including rising disposable incomes and urbanization. These factors are driving the development and expansion of the beer market in Ethiopia, providing opportunities for both local and international beer producers.

Data coverage:
The data encompasses B2C enterprises. The at-home market covers retail sales via super- and hypermarkets, eCommerce, convenience stores, or similar sales channels. The out-of-home data encompasses all sales to hotels, restaurants, catering, cafés, bars, and similar hospitality service establishments. Combined numbers encompass both the at-home market and the out-of-home market. Both the at-home and the out-of-home market are valued at retail selling prices including all sales and consumption taxes.

Modeling approach:
Market sizes are determined through a Top-Down approach, building on specific predefined factors for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use resources from the Statista platform as well as in-house market research, national statistical offices, international institutions, trade associations, companies, the trade press, and the experience of our analysts. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, consumer spending (e.g. consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, consumer spending at Hotels, Restaurants etc.), and price level index. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:
In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the exponential trend smoothing is well suited for forecasting the Alcoholic Drinks market with a projected steady growth. The main drivers are GDP per capita and consumer spending per capita.

Additional notes:
The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level.