On July 4, 2024, the UK will hold a general election, following the announcement by British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, that he intends to dissolve parliament on May 30, 2024. While the last election in 2019 took place in December, winter elections are quite rare in the UK due to organizational concerns, and the theory that they lead to lower voter turnouts. Based on
, the Conservative government would lose the next general election, leading to the first Labour government in 14 years.
14 years of Conservative rule
In 2010, a large swing to the Conservatives saw them finally wrest power from the Labour Party, who had
ruled the country since 1997. Although they did not win an outright majority, the Conservatives, led by the new Prime Minister David Cameron, dominated a coalition government comprised of themselves and the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives outperformed expectations in the next
general election in 2015, winning enough seats to govern without their former coalition partners. Cameron would only last one more year as UK Prime Minister, however, after backing the losing side in the
Brexit referendum of 2016. The task of leaving the EU was inherited by his successor, Theresa May, who gambled on a
snap election in 2017 to increase her majority in parliament. This gamble ultimately backfired, as the Labour Party, now led by Jeremy Corbyn, increased their vote share enough for the Conservatives to lose their majority. Though still the largest party, May now headed a minority government, relying on the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This arrangement proved to be unstable, and May never truly recovered her political authority. After months of negotiating with the EU,
May’s Brexit deal was rejected three times by Parliament in 2019, leading to her resignation. May was succeeded by Boris Johnson, who managed to win the
2019 election that December outright.
Sunak in power since 2022
Although Sunak restored some degree of political stability to Britain after Truss and Johnson, he also inherited a country facing a huge number of challenges. Throughout 2022 and 2023, Britons consistently identified the economy as one of the top three
issues facing the country. High inflation, expressed most obviously in surging energy and food prices has caused a severe
cost of living Crisis, responsible for the biggest fall in living standards in decades. Additionally, the UK's
National Health Service (NHS) is facing one of its worst crises since its creation after World War Two. Staff shortages, along with increased demand for the service in the Winter have caused accident and emergency waiting times to reach intolerable levels. Outside of the country, the ongoing
War in Ukraine is the biggest test of resolve in a generation for the UK and its NATO allies. In order to address some of these concerns, Sunak began 2023 pledging to deal with five issues seen as important to voters. These were to grow GDP, halve inflation, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting times, and to stop migration via small boats. Going into 2024, Sunak has had only limited success in dealing with these issues.
Inflation did fall throughout 2023, although the price was a stagnant economy which entered 2024 in recession due to
negative growth in Q3 and Q4.
National debt has also not been reduced, although forecasts anticipate it will fall in future financial years.
NHS waiting times meanwhile have continued to rise, while
migration via small boats, although down from 2022, continued throughout 2023.
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