Global grocery retail sales 2016-2021, by region

The value of the grocery retail industry is expected to grow in all markets worldwide by 2021. Established markets like North America and Europe are expected to grow the least, compared to their industry values in 2016. Despite already having nearly the same market value as Europe and North America combined, Asia is expected to grow an additional 35 percent by 2021. By 2022, three of the top single-country grocery markets will be in Asia. Africa and the Middle East, the smallest market in 2016, is forecast to grow to 1.457 trillion dollars by 2021, a 62 percent increase.

Population growth

The largest contributing factor to the projected growth of grocery retail in Africa and the Middle East and the lack of growth in Europe and North America is the age distribution of each region. On the African continent, 41 percent of the population was under the age of 15, compared to just 19 percent in North America and 16 percent in Europe.

Economic growth

In the Asia-Pacific region, the continued transition of populations out of poverty is having a similarly powerful effect. Compared to 2015, the region’s middle-class population will have grown by over 46 percent, compared with a miniscule 1.7 percent in Europe and 2.7 percent in North America.