Depending on the model, worldwide wheat exports are expected to decline between 6.95 and 12.34 percent in 2022 due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The worst case scenario assumes no wheat exports from Ukraine for the entirety of 2022 on top of major recessions in both countries and a decline of Ukrainian production by 20 percent. The Black Sea is the primary shipping lane for exports from both countries.
Forecast decline in global cereal exports due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by cereal type and forecast model
The source notes: "The “mild scenario” assumes for 2022: a recession in Russia and Ukraine, 20% less harvested area in Ukraine and export problems in both countries. The “no Ukrainian exports” scenario assumes additionally that cereal exports from Ukraine are zero in 2022."
Figures have been rounded.
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OECD. (March 17, 2022). Forecast decline in global cereal exports due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by cereal type and forecast model [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 23, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1282395/expected-decline-in-worldwide-cereal-exports-due-to-war-in-ukraine/
OECD. "Forecast decline in global cereal exports due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by cereal type and forecast model." Chart. March 17, 2022. Statista. Accessed December 23, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1282395/expected-decline-in-worldwide-cereal-exports-due-to-war-in-ukraine/
OECD. (2022). Forecast decline in global cereal exports due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by cereal type and forecast model. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 23, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1282395/expected-decline-in-worldwide-cereal-exports-due-to-war-in-ukraine/
OECD. "Forecast Decline in Global Cereal Exports Due to The Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by Cereal Type and Forecast Model." Statista, Statista Inc., 17 Mar 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1282395/expected-decline-in-worldwide-cereal-exports-due-to-war-in-ukraine/
OECD, Forecast decline in global cereal exports due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by cereal type and forecast model Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1282395/expected-decline-in-worldwide-cereal-exports-due-to-war-in-ukraine/ (last visited December 23, 2024)
Forecast decline in global cereal exports due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, by cereal type and forecast model [Graph], OECD, March 17, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1282395/expected-decline-in-worldwide-cereal-exports-due-to-war-in-ukraine/
