Voting intention in a referendum on Scottish independence 2018-2024

As of September 2024, 56 percent of adults in Scotland said they would not support Scotland being independent from the United Kingdom, compared with 44 percent who would support it. Support for Scottish independence reached 53 percent in August 2020, the highest level of support for independence in the provided time period. The highest opposition to independence was in January 2018, when 57 percent of people in Scotland advised they would vote no in a hypothetical referendum.

Independence rejected in the 2014 referendum

The last referendum on Scottish independence took place in September 2014, with 55 percent of Scotland voting 'No' to independence, compared to 45.5 percent who voted 'Yes'. An optimistic 'Yes' campaign was led by Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP); who had overseen his party increase their vote share in Westminster and achieve an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament in 2011. The following year, the UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, granted the Scottish Parliament the authority to hold the independence referendum, which would be held in 2014. Cameron, and various other UK politicians such as Gordon Brown led the ultimately successful 'No' campaign, painting independence as too much of an economic risk for Scotland.

Scotland and Brexit

In the aftermath of the referendum, Alex Salmond resigned as First Minister of Scotland. Although he was on the winning side of the Scottish independence referendum, David Cameron’s would share Salmond’s fate less than two years later when he campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU and end up on the losing side of the Brexit referendum. For Scotland, Brexit gave renewed impetus to the question of Scottish independence. Except for London, all regions of England, along with Wales had voted to take the UK out of Europe, while Scotland, along with Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU. While this represented a significant change in Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK, advocates for Scottish independence have been unable to obtain consent from Westminster to hold a second referendum.