Cruises - Brazil | Statista Market Forecast

By 2024, the projected revenue in the Cruises market in Brazil is set to reach US$392.70m.
It is expected to exhibit an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.32%, ultimately resulting in a market volume of US$440.40m by 2029.
In line with this growth, the number of users in the Cruises market is projected to increase to 952.30k users by 2029.
While the user penetration rate is expected to be 0.36% in 2024, it is estimated to reach 0.43% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is anticipated to be US$506.70.
Moreover, it is expected that 22% of the total revenue generated in the Cruises market in Brazil will come from online sales by 2029.
In a global comparison, United States is expected to generate the most revenue (US$25bn) in the Cruises market by 2024.
Brazil's growing middle class and desire for unique travel experiences have led to an increase in demand for luxury cruises in the country.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in Brazil has been experiencing a significant growth in recent years, attracting both domestic and international tourists to explore the country's beautiful coastlines and vibrant culture.

Customer preferences: Travelers in Brazil are increasingly seeking unique and immersive experiences during their vacations, leading to a rise in demand for themed cruises that offer specialized activities such as music festivals, culinary tours, and wellness retreats. Additionally, there is a growing interest in eco-friendly cruises that promote sustainability and responsible tourism practices.

Trends in the market: One noticeable trend in the Brazilian Cruises market is the expansion of cruise routes to lesser-known destinations along the country's coastline, providing passengers with the opportunity to explore hidden gems and off-the-beaten-path locations. Moreover, cruise operators are investing in luxury amenities and personalized services to cater to the preferences of affluent travelers looking for upscale experiences.

Local special circumstances: Brazil's vast and diverse geography presents a unique advantage for the Cruises market, with a wide range of ports that allow for varied itineraries showcasing the country's natural beauty and cultural heritage. The Carnival season, a major cultural event in Brazil, also contributes to the popularity of cruises during this festive period, attracting both domestic and international tourists looking to celebrate in style.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The overall growth of the tourism industry in Brazil, driven by a stable economy and increasing disposable income among the middle class, has positively impacted the Cruises market. Additionally, government initiatives to promote maritime tourism and improve port infrastructure have further boosted the sector, making Brazil an attractive destination for cruise operators and travelers alike.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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