Cruises - Africa | Statista Market Forecast

It is estimated that the revenue in the Cruises market in Africa will reach US$277.10m by 2024.
The market is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 10.47%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$456.00m by 2029.
The number of users in this sector is projected to reach 547.50k users by 2029.
In 2024, user penetration is expected to be 0.02% and it is expected to increase to 0.04% by 2029.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) is expected to be US$887.40.
It is anticipated that 20% of the total revenue in the Cruises market sector will be generated through online sales by 2029.
In comparison to other countries, United States is expected to generate the most revenue in the Cruises market, with a projected revenue of US$25bn in 2024.
Despite limited infrastructure, African countries such as Egypt and South Africa are emerging as popular cruise destinations due to their rich cultural heritage and scenic coastlines.

Definition:

A cruise is a multi-day vacation trip on a cruise ship which crosses the sea or large inland waters while calling at different tourist destinations along a certain route. With this kind of ship journey, it is not the aspect of transport that is in the spotlight but the stay aboard the ship as well as visiting the tourist destinations. The Cruises market encompasses exclusively passenger ticket revenues. Onboard and other revenues are not included.

Additional Information:

The main performance indicators of the Cruises market are revenues, average revenue per user (ARPU), users and user penetration rates. Additionally, online and offline sales channel shares display the distribution of online and offline bookings. The ARPU refers to the average revenue one user generates per year while the revenue represents the total booking volume. Revenues are generated through both online and offline sales channels and include exclusively B2C revenues. Users represent the aggregated number of guests. Each user is only counted once per year.

The booking volume includes all booked travels made by users from the selected region, independent of the departure and arrival. The scope includes domestic and outbound travel.

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Multi-day cruises
Ocean cruises and river cruises

Trips by ferry (including trips with overnight stay)
Trips by ferry mainly for transport purposes

The Cruises market in Africa is experiencing a steady growth trajectory driven by various factors unique to the region.

Customer preferences: African customers are increasingly drawn to cruise vacations due to the allure of exploring exotic destinations, enjoying all-inclusive luxury experiences, and the convenience of unpacking once while visiting multiple locations. The desire for unique cultural experiences and adventure also plays a significant role in shaping customer preferences in the African cruise market.

Trends in the market: In South Africa, the cruise market is witnessing a surge in popularity as more cruise lines include Cape Town and Durban in their itineraries. This trend is fueled by the country's diverse landscapes, rich cultural heritage, and well-developed tourism infrastructure. Additionally, the growing interest in eco-friendly travel options is driving the demand for sustainable cruise experiences along the African coast.

Local special circumstances: Countries like Egypt and Morocco are capitalizing on their historical landmarks and vibrant local markets to attract cruise tourists. The Nile River cruises in Egypt offer a unique opportunity to explore ancient temples and archaeological sites, while the ports of Morocco provide a gateway to the colorful souks and bustling medinas. These local special circumstances contribute to the overall appeal of cruising in Africa.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The improving economic stability in many African countries is boosting disposable incomes and expanding the middle-class population, leading to a rise in consumer spending on leisure activities like cruises. Additionally, government initiatives to promote tourism and infrastructure development are enhancing the overall accessibility and attractiveness of African cruise destinations. The favorable exchange rates in some countries also make cruise vacations more affordable for international tourists, further driving the growth of the market.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on bookings, revenues, and sales channels of cruises.

Modeling approach:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use financial reports, the Global Consumer Survey, third-party studies and reports, data from industry associations (e.g., UNWTO), and price data of major players in respective markets. To estimate the number of users and bookings, we furthermore use data from the Statista Consumer Insigths Global survey. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as country-related GDP, demographic data (e.g., population), tourism spending, consumer spending, internet penetration, and device penetration. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, ARIMA, which allows time series forecasts, accounting for stationarity of data and enabling short-term estimates. Additionally, simple linear regression, Holt-Winters forecast, and exponential trend smoothing methods are applied. A k-means cluster analysis allows for the estimation of similar countries. The main drivers are tourism GDP per capita and respective price indices.

Additional notes:

The data is modeled using current exchange rates. The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

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