Private Equity - Ukraine

  • Ukraine
  • The deal value in the Private Equity market in Ukraine is projected to reach US$6.09m in 2024.
  • It is expected to exhibit an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2025) of 12.81%, which will result in a projected total amount of US$6.87m by 2025.
  • The average size per deal in the Private Equity market in Ukraine amounts to US$1.65m in 2024.
  • In a global comparison, it is noted that the highest deal value is achieved the the United States (US$594.00bn in 2024).
  • In the Private Equity market, the number of deals in Ukraine is expected to amount to 3.81 by 2025.
  • Ukraine's Private Equity market is experiencing a resurgence as investors increasingly recognize the country's potential for growth and innovation amidst ongoing geopolitical challenges.
 
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Analyst Opinion

The Private Equity market in Ukraine has witnessed a minimal decline in growth, influenced by factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, limited access to finance, and evolving regulatory frameworks. However, investor interest persists, driven by undervalued assets and potential market recovery.

Customer preferences:
Investors in Ukraine’s Private Equity market are increasingly prioritizing sustainable and socially responsible investments that align with evolving consumer values. There is a growing demand for businesses that emphasize environmental stewardship and ethical practices, reflecting a broader trend towards conscious consumption. Moreover, younger demographics are showing a preference for innovative tech solutions, pushing firms to adapt to digital transformations and new business models. This shift is expected to shape investment strategies, encouraging a focus on companies that demonstrate adaptability and align with societal needs.

Trends in the market:
In Ukraine, the Private Equity market is increasingly driven by a focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria, with investors actively seeking opportunities in sustainable and socially responsible ventures. There is a notable trend towards supporting businesses that prioritize ethical practices and environmental sustainability, reflecting a growing consumer demand for responsible investment options. Additionally, the rise of innovative technology is prompting firms to adopt digital transformations, aiming to enhance efficiency and meet the expectations of tech-savvy consumers. This evolution is reshaping investment strategies, encouraging stakeholders to align their portfolios with societal needs and future-proof their investments against market shifts.

Local special circumstances:
In Ukraine, the Private Equity market is shaped by a unique blend of economic transition and socio-political factors. The ongoing reforms aimed at reducing corruption and increasing transparency have attracted both domestic and foreign investors who are eager to capitalize on the potential for growth. Additionally, the cultural emphasis on community and social responsibility drives investment in local businesses that prioritize social impact. The war in Ukraine has further heightened investor interest in resilient sectors, such as technology and agriculture, creating opportunities in innovative solutions tailored to local needs.

Underlying macroeconomic factors:
The Private Equity market in Ukraine is significantly influenced by overarching macroeconomic factors, particularly central bank policies and interest rates. Lower interest rates can boost private equity activity by making borrowing more affordable for both investors and businesses seeking capital. This environment encourages leveraged buyouts and growth investments, particularly in resilient sectors like technology and agriculture. Conversely, rising interest rates could dampen market enthusiasm, curbing new investments as capital becomes more expensive. Moreover, the stability of the national economy, inflation rates, and exchange rate fluctuations further affect investor confidence, shaping their appetite for risk and the overall performance of the private equity landscape.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The figures are based on deal value, number of deals, the average size of each deal, and assets under management within the Private Equity market.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a combined top-down and bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of key players, industry reports, third-party reports, and publicly available databases. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as: GDP, total investment (% of GDP), household wealth (per Adult), high income (% of population), and number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI). This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are total investment (% of GDP), household wealth (per Adult), number of high-income persons, and number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI).

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

Overview

  • Deal Value
  • Average Deal Size
  • Number of Deals
  • Assets Under Management (AUM)
  • Analyst Opinion
  • Methodology
  • Key Market Indicators
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